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Here is the latest review of the COVID-19 situation from
epidemiologist Katelyn Jetelina, MPH PhD. I think this summarizes
things better than any other single write-up that I've seen so far.
It's pretty detailed and you may not want to read it all, so I've
quoted some highlights. --Manny<br>
<br>
<i>Omicron will spread through immune evasion and come and go, while
Delta could persist onward. </i><i><br>
</i><i><br>
</i><i>South Africa’s hospitalizations remain about 50% of what they
were for the Delta wave. Deaths continue to increase, but also
much, much lower than before. Is this because </i><em>immunity is
working</em><i> or because </i><em>Omicron is less severe</em><i>?
We don’t know yet...Once someone got to the hospital, the odds of
disease becoming severe was the same as Delta. So if the immune
system was breached, Omicron did the same damage as Delta.</i><i><br>
</i><i><br>
</i><i>It will be weeks or months until data crystallizes and we
have a clear picture of Omicron severity. What all this means for
hospitalizations and deaths in places like the United States
remains unknown. </i><i><br>
</i><i><br>
</i><i>The Northeast has, by far, the most cases right now.
Washington DC is the leader (</i><i><a
href="https://email.mg2.substack.com/c/eJwlUMuOwyAM_Jpy2wgIeR047GV_I3LATVEJRGAa5e-XNJLltzXjMUC4xnTqPWZil5vp3FEHPLJHIkysZEyzs1r1wzS1rCZWjN3IXJ6fCXED5zWlgmwvi3cGyMVw7ctRSDGxlxYwDlLwZeLS4jC2FkQ_CaWEErYdlv6GhWIdBoMaP5jOGJB5_SLa86P9fci_asdxNOEkt2FuTNxqx4VKEAy5D9ZKcilqKLk6Ez_O_hjIdfdFm2dOX2MhpRRdBW4b2XTPSoTDsnCcOvMcGkWwhregh-LbKptclkxg3hcYS3qDEM46SkDwdPDlcP0817iV4OicMcDi0d5y0K3pV6B5xVCZEtoZSItecTH2fGoVb-_vL327vhsHLljFtbFeBX3Gknw04HF3FjcXfVxdpn-jS5PO"
rel="" style="color: #0068ef; text-decoration: none;">134 </a></i><i>cases
per 100,000) in which cases have increased </i><i><a
href="https://email.mg2.substack.com/c/eJwlUMuOwyAM_Jpy2wgIeR047GV_I3LATVEJRGAa5e-XNJLltzXjMUC4xnTqPWZil5vp3FEHPLJHIkysZEyzs1r1wzS1rCZWjN3IXJ6fCXED5zWlgmwvi3cGyMVw7ctRSDGxlxYwDlLwZeLS4jC2FkQ_CaWEErYdlv6GhWIdBoMaP5jOGJB5_SLa86P9fci_asdxNOEkt2FuTNxqx4VKEAy5D9ZKcilqKLk6Ez_O_hjIdfdFm2dOX2MhpRRdBW4b2XTPSoTDsnCcOvMcGkWwhregh-LbKptclkxg3hcYS3qDEM46SkDwdPDlcP0817iV4OicMcDi0d5y0K3pV6B5xVCZEtoZSItecTH2fGoVb-_vL327vhsHLljFtbFeBX3Gknw04HF3FjcXfVxdpn-jS5PO"
rel="" style="color: #0068ef; text-decoration: none;">440%</a></i><i>
in the past two weeks. This is followed by New York City with 121
cases per 100K and a 342% increase.</i><i><br>
</i><i><br>
</i><i>Nationwide hospitalizations are only up a modest 13% and
deaths continue to remain “low” at 1,351 deaths per day. But
severe disease patterns lag cases 3-4 weeks, so we will see what
happens in a few weeks.</i><i><br>
</i><i><br>
</i><i>Not nearly enough people have their boosters in the United
States: </i><i><a
href="https://email.mg2.substack.com/c/eJw1kMGOrSAMhp_msNMAouKCxWzua5gK1SGDYKCeG99-0JNJGkpL2798Fgi3lC9zpELsPma6DjQR_5eARJjZWTDP3hk1jNPUsXpxQvea-TKvGXEHHwzlE9lxLsFbIJ_iXS-1kGJi34b3oGHVdhWDXValxrGzkxKjdqh7WSc9snA6j9GiwTfmK0VkwXwTHeXVfb3kv2o2vb1rrbPtlt5_ceOAoKEM9gfzU9e9wVofnz3KfAcNJYLQgNt9bHL98SfBvJFcCiGlFL1Qomtl268gBg7LwnHq7Tq2imCLP4Jeiu-bbMu5FKparU07y2aHGK_6VIfC6qE86cphrn4_o6drxghLQPdBRB_OD7R5w4j3Nm4GMmJQXOiBT53i3YfIzbwfej1ywaquS7UrmiudOSQLAQ_vcPcppM0X-gW-eJzR"
rel="" style="color: #0068ef; text-decoration: none;">32%</a></i><i>
of eligible Americans and </i><i><a
href="https://email.mg2.substack.com/c/eJw1kMGOrSAMhp_msNMAouKCxWzua5gK1SGDYKCeG99-0JNJGkpL2798Fgi3lC9zpELsPma6DjQR_5eARJjZWTDP3hk1jNPUsXpxQvea-TKvGXEHHwzlE9lxLsFbIJ_iXS-1kGJi34b3oGHVdhWDXValxrGzkxKjdqh7WSc9snA6j9GiwTfmK0VkwXwTHeXVfb3kv2o2vb1rrbPtlt5_ceOAoKEM9gfzU9e9wVofnz3KfAcNJYLQgNt9bHL98SfBvJFcCiGlFL1Qomtl268gBg7LwnHq7Tq2imCLP4Jeiu-bbMu5FKparU07y2aHGK_6VIfC6qE86cphrn4_o6drxghLQPdBRB_OD7R5w4j3Nm4GMmJQXOiBT53i3YfIzbwfej1ywaquS7UrmiudOSQLAQ_vcPcppM0X-gW-eJzR"
rel="" style="color: #0068ef; text-decoration: none;">55%</a></i><i>
of those 65+. </i><i><br>
</i><i><br>
</i><i>...it looks JJ people need 2 mRNA shots for full neutralizing
antibody protection instead of just one. </i><i><br>
</i><i><br>
</i><i>As expected, Omicron is taking hold in the United States and
case rates will start skyrocketing across the country. What this
means for our hospital systems is yet to be seen. As with
everything in public health, we prepare for the worst and hope for
the best.</i><br>
<br>
<pre class="moz-signature" cols="72">--
"Fight for the things that you care about, but do it in a way that will lead others to join you."
― Ruth Bader Ginsburg</pre>
<div class="moz-forward-container"><br>
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-------- Forwarded Message --------
<table class="moz-email-headers-table" cellspacing="0"
cellpadding="0" border="0">
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<tr>
<th align="RIGHT" valign="BASELINE" nowrap="nowrap">Subject:
</th>
<td>Omicron Update: Dec 22</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<th align="RIGHT" valign="BASELINE" nowrap="nowrap">Date: </th>
<td>Wed, 22 Dec 2021 15:14:13 +0000</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<th align="RIGHT" valign="BASELINE" nowrap="nowrap">From: </th>
<td>Katelyn Jetelina from Your Local Epidemiologist
<a class="moz-txt-link-rfc2396E" href="mailto:yourlocalepidemiologist@substack.com"><yourlocalepidemiologist@substack.com></a></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<th align="RIGHT" valign="BASELINE" nowrap="nowrap">Reply-To:
</th>
<td>Katelyn Jetelina from Your Local Epidemiologist
<a class="moz-txt-link-rfc2396E" href="mailto:reply+r6mh9&a13t&&a862193a2811b73554410292ba4da7d1018110ba9f2e69690f1a861cf66cab31@mg1.substack.com"><reply+r6mh9&a13t&&a862193a2811b73554410292ba4da7d1018110ba9f2e69690f1a861cf66cab31@mg1.substack.com></a></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<th align="RIGHT" valign="BASELINE" nowrap="nowrap">To: </th>
<td><a class="moz-txt-link-abbreviated" href="mailto:manny@ratafias.com">manny@ratafias.com</a></td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
<br>
<br>
<title>Omicron Update: Dec 22</title>
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<div
style="display:none;font-size:1px;color:#333333;line-height:1px;max-height:0px;max-width:0px;opacity:0;overflow:hidden;"
class="preview">Well, Omicron continues to show its colors
across the globe with case rates surging far beyond what we've
seen with any previous waves, like in Denmark and the UK. Other
countries, like France, the United States, and Canada have a
recent explosion of cases pointing to the beginning of their
Omicron wave. Places that put in country-wide restrictions, like
the Netherlands and Germany, have altered their Omicron path
thus
far. </div>
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<p style="color: #1a1a1a; font-size: 16px;
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margin-bottom: 0; margin-top: 0;">Your Local
(Infectious Disease) Epidemiologist</p>
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href="https://email.mg2.substack.com/c/eJx1kk2TojAQhn-N3LTywYccOLgyTmGNsDM1LroXKiQNRiFhIYyDv36jnvawVemkq_O-1ZU8zZmBWvdT1OnBOPetMFMHkYLr0IAx0DvjAH0hReT6QRhSxyYCL72lI4ei6gFaJpvI9CM43Vg2kjMjtbrryRITHDqnKBAoCBnhyPWIKDmtXB84CijitCy9kDzbslFIUBwi-IJ-0gqcJjoZ0w0zupqRjV2THvtGc9ZAJwW0Uje6loNZDGM5GMYvC65bK-ts6FbyXqv52An7wLkAPidkRjdGX0DNaAzTFnPyazqQ5pKcNUrP3Ms-d0Oifnxx-lGx_F1m53ecnvduelt9v6233fFwr72QNF59Z_Hx-tC3zY1PiW99-CjRlMUv0-7zIq3-JvJEZnJ7LWmK3g7b5piniOXhmCi0ENemPOWbP6wjr7v9NvbP7XUts9Va7-P6Z168fvwuYO2p-CtxZEQQwZgQgj3sYrogC69i2EesLBGEHq-ChWtYrS7YzFzU1uSfH3H6qGVKTfaqZ4ZVkg2PsqVV2LMdlTRTAYqVDYgnSPOchgfaogYF1giiYCbCvovw0kchdRF9crtPhud7ywBhx_YV2rpU9B9WfwGDNdRv"
style="color: #1a1a1a; text-decoration: none;"
moz-do-not-send="true">Omicron Update: Dec 22</a></h1>
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<td title="2021-12-22T15:14:27.498Z"
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datetime="2021-12-22T15:14:27.498Z">Dec
22</time></td>
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</div>
</div>
<div class="post typography" style="font-size: 16px;
line-height: 26px; padding: 9px 0;">
<div class="body markup" style="font-size: 16px;
line-height: 26px; margin-bottom: 12px; word-break:
break-word;">
<p style="color: #1a1a1a; font-size: 16px;
line-height: 26px; margin: 0 0 1em 0; margin-top:
0;">Well, Omicron continues to show its colors
across the globe with case rates surging far
beyond what we've seen with any previous waves,
like in Denmark and the UK. Other countries, like
France, the United States, and Canada have a
recent explosion of cases pointing to the
beginning of their Omicron wave. Places that put
in country-wide restrictions, like the Netherlands
and Germany, have altered their Omicron path thus
far. </p>
<div class="captioned-image-container-static"
style="font-size: 16px; line-height: 26px;
margin-bottom: 16px; text-align: center;">
<figure style="display: inline-block; margin: 0
auto; width: 100%;">
<table class="image-wrapper" style="margin: 8px
auto; mso-padding-alt: 1em 0 1.6em;"
cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" border="0"
width="100%">
<tbody>
<tr>
<td style="text-align: center;"><br>
</td>
<td class="content" style="text-align:
center;" align="left" width="550"><a
class="image-link" target="_blank"
href="https://email.mg2.substack.com/c/eJxVUkuOpDAMPU2xA-UPWbBojTTXQE5iqKggoZPQ3fTpJxSrkSL7xb9n2bZQcInpHPeYS3OJqZw7jgG_84qlYGqOjGnybhSq15o3FTg6yKHxeZoT4gZ-HUs6sNkPs3oLxcdwxbOBMqqb50iYIopLIWZqqOj7WSijtKUwWDQW5psWDucxWBzxC9MZAzbr-Cxlzw_-8WB_67MudPkwuYB9dTZu1eQ3WLDqGYt9XrqWKfHB_nzegH8sMbr6n9dpT3FJmLP_wmrPBXGvGTcFkxeJvGiqMId9YfWnFok0xg6iNQC8FbzHVks6tOAMZwb7Xg-iy7yDDX5jgO9891Vr3MN4w3eT-Q17ao0wWrbKONeKwcwtaKtbjoxQYhQBPUyUMfqjOO_2sDR-ZITRamJUUkF5xzo5A62RxhDU0s59Jwos4UXLQ5BtYf_NqEnjBiGc1ZWgwOzh3eK1q6nq7Qi-nBMGMCu6e43lvoX3YqcFA9ZEdBOUkSpB6KCI5oLwe2vXXUglh57QpvK6WLPCeMYjrdHCirt3uPm4xsXn8g9j8cvF"
rel="" style="border: none; display:
block; height: auto; margin: 0;
padding: 0; text-decoration: none;
width: auto;" moz-do-not-send="true"><img
data-attrs="{"src":"https://bucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/71cb4b95-6bdd-48bf-a9c9-3e2010b60a98_1221x633.png","fullscreen":null,"height":570,"width":1100,"resizeWidth":null,"bytes":105193,"alt":null,"title":null,"type":"image/png","href":null}"
alt="" class=""
src="https://cdn.substack.com/image/fetch/w_550,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fbucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F71cb4b95-6bdd-48bf-a9c9-3e2010b60a98_1221x633.png"
style="-ms-interpolation-mode:
bicubic; border: none !important;
display: block; height: auto;
margin: 0 auto; margin-bottom: 0;
max-width: 100%; vertical-align:
middle; width: auto;"
moz-do-not-send="true" width="550"
height="285"></a></td>
<td style="text-align: center;"><br>
</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
</figure>
</div>
<p style="color: #1a1a1a; font-size: 16px;
line-height: 26px; margin: 0 0 1em 0;"><strong><code>Epicenter:
South Africa</code></strong></p>
<p style="color: #1a1a1a; font-size: 16px;
line-height: 26px; margin: 0 0 1em 0;">It’s clear
that Gauteng—Omicron’s epicenter—peaked. It looks
like cases in South Africa, as a whole, also
peaked. </p>
<div class="captioned-image-container-static"
style="font-size: 16px; line-height: 26px;
margin-bottom: 16px; text-align: center;">
<figure style="display: inline-block; margin: 0
auto; width: 100%;">
<table class="image-wrapper" style="margin: 8px
auto; mso-padding-alt: 1em 0 1.6em;"
cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" border="0"
width="100%">
<tbody>
<tr>
<td style="text-align: center;"><br>
</td>
<td class="content" style="text-align:
center;" align="left" width="520"><a
class="image-link" target="_blank"
href="https://email.mg2.substack.com/c/eJxVUl2PpSAM_TXXNw2fIg8-TDaZv2EKVC97FVzAmXF__eL1aRPSHgrtaXpqoeAS0znuMZfmMlM5dxwDfucVS8HUHBnT5N0oeqU1bypwdJBD4_M0J8QN_DqWdGCzH2b1FoqP4frPBsqobp7jbLgT0glGDSMCeqpgsI4YUGZgqPCmhcN5DBZH_MJ0xoDNOj5L2fODfzzYZz3WhS4fJhewr87GrYb8BgtWP2Oxz8vXMiU-2K8_N-AfS4yu3ud12lNcEubsv7DGc0Hca8ZNweRFIi-aasxhX1jfU4tEGmMH0RoA3gqusNWSDi04w5lBpfQgusw72OBvDPCd775qjXsYb_huMr-hYjCA1aydoZdtHcrcguF9q4ixTFGnndZTZfjpNe1-77g0fmSEUcoYo5IKyjvWyRloT8AYglraWXWiwBJetDwE2Rb234yaNG4QwlmfEhSYPbxbvLSaqt-O4Ms5YQCzortlLPcuvIWdFgxYE9FNUEbaC0KHnmguCL9Vu_ZC9nJQhDaV18WaFcYzHmmNFlbcvcPNxzUuPpd_VATMYw"
rel="" style="border: none; display:
block; height: auto; margin: 0;
padding: 0; text-decoration: none;
width: auto;" moz-do-not-send="true"><img
data-attrs="{"src":"https://bucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/72a8ac92-fa65-45df-ab36-70bc271d9d99_951x691.jpeg","fullscreen":null,"height":691,"width":951,"resizeWidth":520,"bytes":84896,"alt":null,"title":null,"type":"image/jpeg","href":null}"
alt="" class=""
src="https://cdn.substack.com/image/fetch/w_520,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fbucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F72a8ac92-fa65-45df-ab36-70bc271d9d99_951x691.jpeg"
style="-ms-interpolation-mode:
bicubic; border: none !important;
display: block; height: auto;
margin: 0 auto; margin-bottom: 0;
max-width: 100%; vertical-align:
middle; width: auto;"
moz-do-not-send="true" width="520"
height="377.83385909568875"></a></td>
<td style="text-align: center;"><br>
</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
</figure>
</div>
<p style="color: #1a1a1a; font-size: 16px;
line-height: 26px; margin: 0 0 1em 0;">Why do we
have waves? See my previous post <a
href="https://email.mg2.substack.com/c/eJx1kE2OhCAQhU_T7DSAQOuCxWzmGqaUUskoGCjbePuh29UsJqm_VL3KS74RCOeYLrvHTOxderp2tAHPvCIRJnZkTL13Vpln1zWsDE60umU-91NC3MCvltKBbD-G1Y9APoa3XrZCio4tVvGWa2cAB9VMU9dpM4lJPwfVGgNcjrctHM5jGNHiC9MVA7LVLkR7fjRfD_ld4opHWuMIK-7e4ebjGmefqc7HkAnGn3qMW5HtJc_lqlysTqwWeGF1lpIrCK5MuaLFZ-at5FIIKaXQQommlrWeQBgOw8Cx0-P0rBXBHH4EPRTfZvnHhyW7QQhXOSUgmDzkz7ow6EvfjuDp6jHAsKK78dDN-AOsnzFgeUTXA1lhFBet4V2jeHPTePPWRrdPLljxdbF8BfsPgV8VN5wX"
rel="" style="color: #0068ef; text-decoration:
none;" moz-do-not-send="true">here</a>. But this
peak is far more interesting than some may think,
as it’s a sign that we are missing a fundamental
piece of the Omicron puzzle. With R(t)=3, we would
expect an attack rate of <a
href="https://email.mg2.substack.com/c/eJwlkc2OhCAMx59muGkA0dEDh73sa5gKVckgGKgz4e0XdxLSD-BP2x8GCLeYij5jJnabmcqJOuAneyTCxK6MaXZWq-E5TR2rgRVjPzKX5zUhHuC8pnQhO6_FOwPkYrjvy1FIMbFdL5OykzV2Wjvx7EEOlgsu0KhODWoczbcsXNZhMKjxjanEgMzrnejMj-7nIX_rCuWArTXxqLELhN677VakmksuRXVCVkM7NjletDewptpQEw9nUgzNB97YuNyATwi2NCfCy4Wt-eyl3enwzOn7HSGlFL1Qomtl268gBg7LwnHqzfpsFcEWXoIeih-bbPO1ZALzuvtiSR8QQqlHCQhWB_l_u4KZqz-u4KjMGGDxaL_M6Av-n-Jcp8EqRDsDaTEoLsaBT53i3RfR_Qn90I9PLlita2NVBV3ilXw04PF0Fg8Xfdxcpj9aTKG_"
rel="" style="color: #0068ef; text-decoration:
none;" moz-do-not-send="true">90%</a>, so we
would expect Gauteng and South Africa to peak much
higher. <a
href="https://email.mg2.substack.com/c/eJwlkc2OhCAMx59muGkA0dEDh73sa5gKVckgGKgz4e0XdxLSD-BP2x8GCLeYij5jJnabmcqJOuAneyTCxK6MaXZWq-E5TR2rgRVjPzKX5zUhHuC8pnQhO6_FOwPkYrjvy1FIMbFdL5OykzV2Wjvx7EEOlgsu0KhODWoczbcsXNZhMKjxjanEgMzrnejMj-7nIX_rCuWArTXxqLELhN677VakmksuRXVCVkM7NjletDewptpQEw9nUgzNB97YuNyATwi2NCfCy4Wt-eyl3enwzOn7HSGlFL1Qomtl268gBg7LwnHqzfpsFcEWXoIeih-bbPO1ZALzuvtiSR8QQqlHCQhWB_l_u4KZqz-u4KjMGGDxaL_M6Av-n-Jcp8EqRDsDaTEoLsaBT53i3RfR_Qn90I9PLlita2NVBV3ilXw04PF0Fg8Xfdxcpj9aTKG_"
rel="" style="color: #0068ef; text-decoration:
none;" moz-do-not-send="true">Scientists </a>have
offered several hypotheses: </p>
<ol style="margin-top: 0;">
<li style="margin-bottom: 3.75px; margin-left:
7.5px; margin-right: 0; margin-top: 3.75px;">
<p style="color: #1a1a1a; font-size: 16px;
line-height: 26px; margin: 0; margin-bottom:
0;"><em><strong>Testing</strong></em>. South
Africa’s test positivity continues to hoover
around <a
href="https://email.mg2.substack.com/c/eJwlUMGOhCAM_ZrhtgYQHDlw2Mv-hilQHbIKBups_PvFMWnapu1r-54HwiWX0-65ErvcROeONuFfXZEICzsqlikGq4anMT1rSRCjHlms01wQN4irpXIg2w-3Rg8Uc7rm5SikMOxlZT97p7V03MyD186DkkI5NOBgHPtwn4UjREweLb6xnDkhW-2LaK-P_vshf5r5_I7hS5gA9eUylNBdX0rV-by1NotWcimElFJooUTfyU7PIAYOznE02s_PThEs6VfQQ_FtkV09XCXwv9cKVuwGKZ2tVYBgjlA_5UZranE7UqRzwgRuxXAzplu2jwbTggkbEMMEZMWguBgHbnrF-5vgJaEe9PjkgrW7ITdUsmc-ypo9rLjHgFvMa15ipX-BwYrS"
rel="" style="color: #0068ef;
text-decoration: none;"
moz-do-not-send="true">30%</a>, which is
very odd because usually this decreases before
cases decrease. So this could mean that people
aren’t bothering to get tested or South Africa
has reached testing capacity.</p>
</li>
<li style="margin-bottom: 3.75px; margin-left:
7.5px; margin-right: 0; margin-top: 3.75px;">
<p style="color: #1a1a1a; font-size: 16px;
line-height: 26px; margin: 0; margin-bottom:
0;"><em><strong>Asymptomatic spread</strong></em>.
Somewhat relatedly, the peak could mean there
are far more asymptomatic cases that just
aren’t detected. So there are far more “true”
cases than the epi curves portray. I think
this is the most likely scenario.</p>
</li>
<li style="margin-bottom: 3.75px; margin-left:
7.5px; margin-right: 0; margin-top: 3.75px;">
<p style="color: #1a1a1a; font-size: 16px;
line-height: 26px; margin: 0; margin-bottom:
0;"><em><strong>Secondary attack rate.</strong></em>
Omicron could have a shorter generation time,
so positive cases infect far less people than
Delta. In other words, the secondary attack
rate is much smaller. Data from the UK,
though, shows household transmission higher
with Omicron than Delta, so I’m not convinced
this is a driving factor. </p>
</li>
<li style="margin-bottom: 3.75px; margin-left:
7.5px; margin-right: 0; margin-top: 3.75px;">
<p style="color: #1a1a1a; font-size: 16px;
line-height: 26px; margin: 0; margin-bottom:
0;"><em><strong>Susceptibility</strong></em>.
Omicron is only spreading among certain levels
of immunity and/or susceptibility. A running
hypothesis is that Omicron and Delta will
co-exist with different paths: Omicron will
spread through immune evasion and come and go,
while Delta could persist onward. </p>
</li>
<li style="margin-bottom: 3.75px; margin-left:
7.5px; margin-right: 0; margin-top: 3.75px;">
<p style="color: #1a1a1a; font-size: 16px;
line-height: 26px; margin: 0; margin-bottom:
0;"><em><strong>Behaviors</strong></em>.
Behaviors of people drastically changed due to
increasing cases. While, as far as I can tell,
national policies on the ground haven’t
drastically changed in South Africa, people
did go on summer holiday. As South African
scientists <a
href="https://email.mg2.substack.com/c/eJwlUMtu7SAM_JrDMsI8Eliw6KZfcPcRASdFJRAF51b5-5IeCfD4xdgTPOFWz9sdtRF7npnuA13Bn5aRCE92NTznFJ0aJ2sl6yCC0YalNq8n4u5TdnReyI5rySl4SrU89cKAAMu-nIbR9gsS-CqtCNxOYYlSCjNpDMq8af0VE5aADv_jedeCLLsvoqO95MdLfPZDP-kZaAh1796_K6cai--wkaerdQBqAgvcWKXF1ClH08d0ggsAIQRoUCAHMejVw8j9snC0OqzToMhv5Rvopfi-iaFdS_8yfD9M7HS7L-XuqdOTX5Nvf-G-7NztfpVE94zFLxnjWwd6i_mnzLxhwd6IcfbkYFQczMitVFy-136E1aM2EwfWeWPtXcXd9TpzDT7jkSLuqea6pUa_ZAyO2Q"
rel="" style="color: #0068ef;
text-decoration: none;"
moz-do-not-send="true">warned</a>, we need
to compare the South African Omicron wave to
Beta (not Delta) to account for seasonality
and human behavior. </p>
</li>
<li style="margin-bottom: 3.75px; margin-left:
7.5px; margin-right: 0; margin-top: 3.75px;">
<p style="color: #1a1a1a; font-size: 16px;
line-height: 26px; margin: 0; margin-bottom:
0;"><em><strong>Network effects</strong></em>.
This plays some sort of role, too (and I think
the most interesting). As people see their
regular contacts and these networks reassert
themselves, Omicron runs out of places to go.
</p>
</li>
</ol>
<p style="color: #1a1a1a; font-size: 16px;
line-height: 26px; margin: 0 0 1em 0;">Nonetheless,
South Africa showed us that Omicron spread
incredibly quickly, and we will continue to see
this rate of spread across the globe. </p>
<p style="color: #1a1a1a; font-size: 16px;
line-height: 26px; margin: 0 0 1em 0;">South
Africa’s hospitalizations remain about 50% of what
they were for the Delta wave. Deaths continue to
increase, but also much, much lower than before.
Is this because <em>immunity is working</em> or
because <em>Omicron is less severe</em>? We don’t
know yet. But an important <a
href="https://email.mg2.substack.com/c/eJwlUEGOwyAMfE05IkwISQ4c9rLfiAiYFDWBCJx28_ulrWSNR2Nb1oyzhGsulzlyJfaGma4DTcJX3ZAICzsrljl6o_QwTR1rxMPYjyzWORTE3cbNUDmRHeeyRWcp5vTelyNImNjd2LAIPYRh9GFQgwrO9XpxUxBehcF30_etPX3E5NDgE8uVE7LN3ImOeut-bvK31ev14jv68hefPJe1KS4nwkSNgeAAAhqTQgIHyRtKkHoE0E9g0bx1kFJCDwo6LnkfLGhhl0Xg1LswcEV2TQ-gmxL7Knk9l0rWPbjLOytmtyldbVQs2RBt_cjN8tz6fqZI14zJLhv6bxr0jfSTz7xiwnaIfrZkQCsBoxZTp0T3Nf-Ot9f9OAhg7a_P7SqZK59ly85ueESPe8xbXmOlf1VtkMo"
rel="" style="color: #0068ef; text-decoration:
none;" moz-do-not-send="true">preprint</a> was
released yesterday describing Omicron
hospitalizations in South Africa. There was a lot
in this paper, but, to me, the following was the
biggest finding: Once someone got to the hospital,
the odds of disease becoming severe was the same
as Delta. So if the immune system was breached,
Omicron did the same damage as Delta. This is
consistent with another robust <a
href="https://email.mg2.substack.com/c/eJwlUcuOwyAM_JpyIwJCXgcOe9nfiBxwU3Z5ROBslb9f2koIRoM9I48tEO65XObIldjrWuk60CR81oBEWNhZsazeGT1Oy9KzBpych5n5ut4LYgQfDJUT2XFuwVsgn9OrXs1SyYU9zGLFNMPcb8MkxlHK2S3zNCxa901QWf2xhdN5TBYN_mG5ckIWzIPoqLf-66a-23k-n12176Iul70xNifCRA1BIW8DNoRQwsUDbLzSS7Lyh0_Ec_S25MQjXHxDHn1wWHhszvytSb5S5QXbsH_If063x0Yyb5RQUiql5CC17DvVDXeQo4BtE7gM9j51mmBPv5JuWsRddfXcKoH97WyOrJgIKV3tqwDB3UN90y2qtb3xTJ6uFRNsAd0nRfqs4p3rumPC1ohuBTJy1ELOo1h6LfpPaK-1DOMwT0Ky5uty60rmymcJ2ULAwzuMPoe8t_H-AYhKqd4"
rel="" style="color: #0068ef; text-decoration:
none;" moz-do-not-send="true">analysis </a>of
hospitalizations from the UK that found Omicron is
<em><strong>not</strong></em> less severe than
Delta. </p>
<p style="color: #1a1a1a; font-size: 16px;
line-height: 26px; margin: 0 0 1em 0;">On the
other hand, lab data is showing that there are
certainly physiological differences between
Omicron and Delta disease processes (go <a
href="https://email.mg2.substack.com/c/eJwlUcuOwyAM_JpyIwJCXgcOe9nfiBxwU3Z5ROBslb9f2koIRoM9I48tEO65XObIldjrWuk60CR81oBEWNhZsazeGT1Oy9KzBpych5n5ut4LYgQfDJUT2XFuwVsgn9OrXs1SyYU9zGLFNMPcb8MkxlHK2S3zNCxa901QWf2xhdN5TBYN_mG5ckIWzIPoqLf-66a-23k-n12176Iul70xNifCRA1BIW8DNoRQwsUDbLzSS7Lyh0_Ec_S25MQjXHxDHn1wWHhszvytSb5S5QXbsH_If063x0Yyb5RQUiql5CC17DvVDXeQo4BtE7gM9j51mmBPv5JuWsRddfXcKoH97WyOrJgIKV3tqwDB3UN90y2qtb3xTJ6uFRNsAd0nRfqs4p3rumPC1ohuBTJy1ELOo1h6LfpPaK-1DOMwT0Ky5uty60rmymcJ2ULAwzuMPoe8t_H-AYhKqd4"
rel="" style="color: #0068ef; text-decoration:
none;" moz-do-not-send="true">here </a>for more
great details). It will be weeks or months until
data crystallizes and we have a clear picture of
Omicron severity. What all this means for
hospitalizations and deaths in places like the
United States remains unknown. </p>
<p style="color: #1a1a1a; font-size: 16px;
line-height: 26px; margin: 0 0 1em 0;"><strong><code>United
States</code></strong></p>
<p style="color: #1a1a1a; font-size: 16px;
line-height: 26px; margin: 0 0 1em 0;">Omicron
became the dominant variant in just two short
weeks and now accounts for more than<a
href="https://email.mg2.substack.com/c/eJw1UEtuhDAMPc1kNyg_GFhk0U2vgUximKghQYmh4vYNgypZ_tvPfhYIl5RPs6VC7FIjnRuaiL8lIBFmthfMo3dGd69hUKw6TvRtz3wZ54y4gg-G8o5s26fgLZBP8eqXvZBiYG-jdMdVa18cWtQ9yMk6KRGFtTPOk9M3LOzOY7Ro8MB8pogsmDfRVh7q6yG_q9h0eNdYZ5slHf_x0wHBkzLYH8yfPnVA9hDpueW0pXydU5g3kkshpJSiFVqoRjbtDKLjME0ch9bOr0YTLPFH0EPzdZFN2adCdW1j08qyWSHGs5ZyxZs9lE-6vjxWu-7R0zlihCmgu9mgm9IPP-OCEesguhHIiE5z0Xd8UJqr-_mL3rZr-xcXrOK6VKeiOdOeQ7IQcPMOV59CWnyhP5hald8"
rel="" style="color: #0068ef; text-decoration:
none;" moz-do-not-send="true"> 73%</a> of cases
in the United States now. By next week Omicron
could easily account for 100% of cases. <em>Will
Omicron completely overtake Delta or will Delta
continue its path among some groups?</em> We
should get clarity on this soon. </p>
<div class="captioned-image-container-static"
style="font-size: 16px; line-height: 26px;
margin-bottom: 16px; text-align: center;">
<figure style="display: inline-block; margin: 0
auto; width: 100%;">
<table class="image-wrapper" style="margin: 8px
auto; mso-padding-alt: 1em 0 1.6em;"
cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" border="0"
width="100%">
<tbody>
<tr>
<td style="text-align: center;"><br>
</td>
<td class="content" style="text-align:
center;" align="left" width="432"><a
class="image-link" target="_blank"
href="https://email.mg2.substack.com/c/eJxVUs2SpCAMfpr2psWv4oHD1FbNa1gBos22ggs4M-7TL7anrYL8knwhiYWCS0yn3mMuzUWmcu6oA37nFUvB1BwZ0-SdFv0wjrypgqNKqsbnaU6IG_hVl3Rgsx9m9RaKj-F6zxRldGyems-WUUqJ6wliL8BZOZtBiYEYO4-DumHhcB6DRY1fmM4YsFn1s5Q9P_jHg33WY13o8mFyAfvqbNyqyW-wYOUzFvu8eE1T4oP9-nML_GOJ0VV9Xqc9xSVhzv4Lqz0XxL1G3BBMXiDygqnEHPaF1Z9aJNIYq0RrAHgr-IDtKKlqwRnODA7DqESXeQcb_I0BvvNdV81xN-MtvovMb1GNXEqwrhWzqfnq_9t6WWsGqIqtHgPTyPsfypjqfu-4NF4zUtvHGKOSCso71skZaE_AGIKjtPPQiQJLeNHyEGRb2H9NapLeIISzuhIUmD28a7yGNVW-HcGXc8IAZkV3z7Hcy_Ce7LRgwBqIboKiaS8IVT0ZuSD8Htu1GLKXaiC0qbgu1qigz3ikNVpYcfcONx_XuPhc_gEASs3a"
rel="" style="border: none; display:
block; height: auto; margin: 0;
padding: 0; text-decoration: none;
width: auto;" moz-do-not-send="true"><img
data-attrs="{"src":"https://bucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/89355acd-4fb3-4bcf-bcf2-b7a4bccacdba_936x1228.jpeg","fullscreen":null,"height":1228,"width":936,"resizeWidth":432,"bytes":124598,"alt":null,"title":null,"type":"image/jpeg","href":null}"
alt="" class=""
src="https://cdn.substack.com/image/fetch/w_432,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fbucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F89355acd-4fb3-4bcf-bcf2-b7a4bccacdba_936x1228.jpeg"
style="-ms-interpolation-mode:
bicubic; border: none !important;
display: block; height: auto;
margin: 0 auto; margin-bottom: 0;
max-width: 100%; vertical-align:
middle; width: auto;"
moz-do-not-send="true" width="432"
height="566.7692307692307"></a></td>
<td style="text-align: center;"><br>
</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
</figure>
</div>
<div class="captioned-image-container-static"
style="font-size: 16px; line-height: 26px;
margin-bottom: 16px; text-align: center;">
<figure style="display: inline-block; margin: 0
auto; width: 100%;">
<table class="image-wrapper" style="margin: 8px
auto; mso-padding-alt: 1em 0 1.6em;"
cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" border="0"
width="100%">
<tbody>
<tr>
<td style="text-align: center;"><br>
</td>
<td class="content" style="text-align:
center;" align="left" width="550"><a
class="image-link" target="_blank"
href="https://email.mg2.substack.com/c/eJxVUl2PpSAM_TXXNw2fgg8-TDaZv2EKVC97FVzAmXF__eL1aRPSHgrtOWlroeAS0znuMZfmMlM5dxwDfucVS8HUHBnT5N0oejUMvKnAUS114_M0J8QN_DqWdGCzH2b1FoqP4frPNGV0aJ4jI5JppaSmhHLgQ489p70Fw50ibpY3LRzOY7A44hemMwZs1vFZyp4f_OPBPuuxLnT5MLmAfXU2bjXkN1iw-hmLfV6-linxwX79uQH_WGJ09T6v057ikjBn_4U1ngviXjNuCiYvEnnRVGMO-8L6nlok0hirRWsAeCu4wnaQVLfgDGcGlRq06DLvYIO_McB3vnXVGncz3vAtMr_h7IQx2GOriYFWWAa1shtalIORxFIlFZsop-RHEdr93nFpfO0fo5QxRiUVlHeskzPQnoAxBAdpZ9WJAkt40fIQZFvYf01q0rhBCGd9SlBg9vDWeA1rqn47gi_nhAHMiu6eY7mX4T3ZacGANRHdBGWkvSBU92TggvB7bNdiyF7qqrepvC7WrDCe8UhrtLDi7h1uPq5x8bn8A0TSy-s"
rel="" style="border: none; display:
block; height: auto; margin: 0;
padding: 0; text-decoration: none;
width: auto;" moz-do-not-send="true"><img
data-attrs="{"src":"https://bucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/fd4bbe6e-80ba-4c2a-bad9-e59b50c17572_1310x701.jpeg","fullscreen":null,"height":589,"width":1100,"resizeWidth":600,"bytes":84630,"alt":null,"title":null,"type":"image/jpeg","href":null}"
alt="" class="wide-image"
src="https://cdn.substack.com/image/fetch/w_550,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fbucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Ffd4bbe6e-80ba-4c2a-bad9-e59b50c17572_1310x701.jpeg"
style="-ms-interpolation-mode:
bicubic; border: none !important;
display: block; height: auto;
margin: 0 auto; margin-bottom: 0;
max-width: 550px; vertical-align:
middle; width: 100%;"
moz-do-not-send="true" width="550"
height="294.5"></a></td>
<td style="text-align: center;"><br>
</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
<figcaption class="image-caption" style="color:
#767676; font-family: sans-serif; font-size:
14px; font-weight: 300; line-height: 1.4em;
text-align: center;">(CDC) Purple=Omicron;
Orange= Delta</figcaption></figure>
</div>
<p style="color: #1a1a1a; font-size: 16px;
line-height: 26px; margin: 0 0 1em 0;">With more
Omicron will come more cases. The Northeast has,
by far, the most cases right now. Washington DC is
the leader (<a
href="https://email.mg2.substack.com/c/eJwlUMuOwyAM_Jpy2wgIeR047GV_I3LATVEJRGAa5e-XNJLltzXjMUC4xnTqPWZil5vp3FEHPLJHIkysZEyzs1r1wzS1rCZWjN3IXJ6fCXED5zWlgmwvi3cGyMVw7ctRSDGxlxYwDlLwZeLS4jC2FkQ_CaWEErYdlv6GhWIdBoMaP5jOGJB5_SLa86P9fci_asdxNOEkt2FuTNxqx4VKEAy5D9ZKcilqKLk6Ez_O_hjIdfdFm2dOX2MhpRRdBW4b2XTPSoTDsnCcOvMcGkWwhregh-LbKptclkxg3hcYS3qDEM46SkDwdPDlcP0817iV4OicMcDi0d5y0K3pV6B5xVCZEtoZSItecTH2fGoVb-_vL327vhsHLljFtbFeBX3Gknw04HF3FjcXfVxdpn-jS5PO"
rel="" style="color: #0068ef; text-decoration:
none;" moz-do-not-send="true">134 </a>cases per
100,000) in which cases have increased <a
href="https://email.mg2.substack.com/c/eJwlUMuOwyAM_Jpy2wgIeR047GV_I3LATVEJRGAa5e-XNJLltzXjMUC4xnTqPWZil5vp3FEHPLJHIkysZEyzs1r1wzS1rCZWjN3IXJ6fCXED5zWlgmwvi3cGyMVw7ctRSDGxlxYwDlLwZeLS4jC2FkQ_CaWEErYdlv6GhWIdBoMaP5jOGJB5_SLa86P9fci_asdxNOEkt2FuTNxqx4VKEAy5D9ZKcilqKLk6Ez_O_hjIdfdFm2dOX2MhpRRdBW4b2XTPSoTDsnCcOvMcGkWwhregh-LbKptclkxg3hcYS3qDEM46SkDwdPDlcP0817iV4OicMcDi0d5y0K3pV6B5xVCZEtoZSItecTH2fGoVb-_vL327vhsHLljFtbFeBX3Gknw04HF3FjcXfVxdpn-jS5PO"
rel="" style="color: #0068ef; text-decoration:
none;" moz-do-not-send="true">440%</a> in the
past two weeks. This is followed by New York City
with 121 cases per 100K and a 342% increase. </p>
<div class="captioned-image-container-static"
style="font-size: 16px; line-height: 26px;
margin-bottom: 16px; text-align: center;">
<figure style="display: inline-block; margin: 0
auto; width: 100%;">
<table class="image-wrapper" style="margin: 8px
auto; mso-padding-alt: 1em 0 1.6em;"
cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" border="0"
width="100%">
<tbody>
<tr>
<td style="text-align: center;"><br>
</td>
<td class="content" style="text-align:
center;" align="left" width="550"><a
class="image-link" target="_blank"
href="https://email.mg2.substack.com/c/eJxVUl2PpSAM_TXXNw2fCg8-TDbZv2EKVC-5Ci7gzDq_fvC6L5uQ9lA4PU1bCwWXmM5xj7k0l5nKueMY8CuvWAqm5siYJu9G0Q9a86YCR5VUjc_TnBA38OtY0oHNfpjVWyg-hus_U5RR3TxHKVSlMq2tody6mQFTDGdJBoVWIL9l4XAeg8URPzGdMWCzjs9S9vzgHw_2ux7rQpcPkwvYV2fjVkN-gwWrn7HY5-VrmhIf7NefG_CPJUZX7_M67SkuCXP2n1jjuSDulXFLMHmJyEumGnPYF9b31CKRxlglWgPAW8EHbLWkqgVnODM4DFqJLvMONviOAb7yXVfNcTfjDd9F5jdkvTKKoGmlk7QVMKi2toW3lJKBmBm503rSiv-VXHZ7WBo_MsIoZYxRSQXlHevkDLQnYAxBLe08dKLAEl60PATZFvZfi5o0bhDCWZ8SFJg9vCu8RjVVvx3Bl3PCAGZFd0-x3Kvwnuu0YMBKRDdBGWkvCFU90VyQf0O71kL2Ug2ENlXXxcoK4xmPtEYLK-7e4ebjGhefyw8cgssG"
rel="" style="border: none; display:
block; height: auto; margin: 0;
padding: 0; text-decoration: none;
width: auto;" moz-do-not-send="true"><img
data-attrs="{"src":"https://bucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/268b80eb-5d51-4a78-99c3-11070bfe3d99_983x535.png","fullscreen":null,"height":535,"width":983,"resizeWidth":null,"bytes":32961,"alt":null,"title":null,"type":"image/png","href":null}"
alt="" class=""
src="https://cdn.substack.com/image/fetch/w_550,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fbucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F268b80eb-5d51-4a78-99c3-11070bfe3d99_983x535.png"
style="-ms-interpolation-mode:
bicubic; border: none !important;
display: block; height: auto;
margin: 0 auto; margin-bottom: 0;
max-width: 100%; vertical-align:
middle; width: auto;"
moz-do-not-send="true" width="550"
height="299.3387589013225"></a></td>
<td style="text-align: center;"><br>
</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
<figcaption class="image-caption" style="color:
#767676; font-family: sans-serif; font-size:
14px; font-weight: 300; line-height: 1.4em;
text-align: center;">Washington DC (Source
NYT)</figcaption></figure>
</div>
<p style="color: #1a1a1a; font-size: 16px;
line-height: 26px; margin: 0 0 1em 0;">The state
leader is Rhode Island (118 per 100K) followed by
New York (100 per 100K) and New Hampshire (88 per
100K). Hawaii (+557%), Florida (+371%), Georgia
(+139%), Louisiana (+132%), and Texas (+113%) have
the fastest 14-day case growth though.</p>
<p style="color: #1a1a1a; font-size: 16px;
line-height: 26px; margin: 0 0 1em 0;">Nationwide
hospitalizations are only up a modest 13% and
deaths continue to remain “low” at 1,351 deaths
per day. But severe disease patterns lag cases 3-4
weeks, so we will see what happens in a few weeks.
While I expect an uptick, I certainly don’t think
we will reach levels like we saw in the past
thanks to our vaccines and adaptive immune
systems. It’s noteworthy, though, that the first
Omicron death was <a
href="https://email.mg2.substack.com/c/eJwtUcuO3CAQ_Br7aBnw88AhyWQ0UQ4ZRblbbWjbZDF4ob2J_z7YEwkVpaaahioFhLMPh9x8pPyEgY4NpcM_0SIRhnyPGAajZdW0fS_yRDTr6i43cZgC4grGSgo75ts-WqOAjHennneMsz5fpKj0qBjoVolJqWZqoa84oMBWj23Fx9dY2LVBp1DiB4bDO8ytXIi2mIlPGb-n9bp_QbC0FAuEYKLyu6OD_haz_0iKpw8ENibG2wQ3r_YVHZ2Fx5fnI-M1L3_illTx4ncTIl3sx2pU8O6_wiZX9MVvCLRcLK7FpqdM3NPzMnHz39v2_Rd___34-i0cz-cyf_Z-TkqhL8iN5CVnjHPOalYxUfCinoA1JYxjiX2tpraoCGb3xiirynXmRdzHSKDeCuXXPMgVnDvSUQCCyUC8ysmEIe3r7gwdAzoYLeqX__QK8UpkmNFhOL8xAEnWVCXrmrIXVSledp-B1k3dtSXL01ztU5eTh9-D9Qosbkbjarz1s4n0D4S_uKI"
rel="" style="color: #0068ef; text-decoration:
none;" moz-do-not-send="true">reported </a>this
week in Houston among a male aged 50-60 years old
who previously recovered from COVID19. Do not rely
on previous infections to get you through this
Omicron wave. </p>
<p style="color: #1a1a1a; font-size: 16px;
line-height: 26px; margin: 0 0 1em 0;"><strong><code>Where
will this go?</code></strong> </p>
<p style="color: #1a1a1a; font-size: 16px;
line-height: 26px; margin: 0 0 1em 0;">Throughout
the pandemic, the CDC has looked to a consortium
of scientific teams across the country to model
projections. Recently the teams presented their
Omicron projections. One of these teams,
University of Texas, made their modeling public
over the weekend. Their <a
href="https://email.mg2.substack.com/c/eJwlkUtu7SAMQFdzmSUCAtxkwKCTtw1kwElRE4j49DW7L2kk5A-25WPbQcUt5UufqVRyC1OvE3XE_2XHWjGTVjCb4LVQ72WZSDc8m-VMQjFrRjwg7LrmhuRsdg8Oakjxzucz42whnxqFkKtfBFcz-mVys5VCOE8RV4UT8KctNB8wOtT4jflKEcmuP2s9y2v6ePF__bn0HfzAlrGCc2Or-ANlRN966EAfoOs17B32Aekup11Y-mdZKqW3w3v2MAiGagCGYvATrABeMfW2PS0dweWOjwfm7aYxg2nFFIcRckjldut4-pUEzSlnjHPOJBNsGvkoV2CKgrUUF-nW9ygqbPGL1Zegx8bH0mzp6F-jSwfJ-oAYrx7KUGENfZT7u6Obro8WQ71M72p39M9663Ojv4WbDoe9EL2BqpkSlM2KLpOg07PN-15SyflNGel9fepVUV-p5T052PEMHo-Q9rSFUn8Bymyubg"
rel="" style="color: #0068ef; text-decoration:
none;" moz-do-not-send="true">report </a>looked
at 16 omicron scenarios that varied three
variables: </p>
<ol style="margin-top: 0;">
<li style="margin-bottom: 3.75px; margin-left:
7.5px; margin-right: 0; margin-top: 3.75px;">
<p style="color: #1a1a1a; font-size: 16px;
line-height: 26px; margin: 0; margin-bottom:
0;">How quickly Omicron spreads</p>
</li>
<li style="margin-bottom: 3.75px; margin-left:
7.5px; margin-right: 0; margin-top: 3.75px;">
<p style="color: #1a1a1a; font-size: 16px;
line-height: 26px; margin: 0; margin-bottom:
0;">How easily Omicron evades immunity, and</p>
</li>
<li style="margin-bottom: 3.75px; margin-left:
7.5px; margin-right: 0; margin-top: 3.75px;">
<p style="color: #1a1a1a; font-size: 16px;
line-height: 26px; margin: 0; margin-bottom:
0;">How quickly we're able to roll out booster
shots</p>
</li>
</ol>
<p style="color: #1a1a1a; font-size: 16px;
line-height: 26px; margin: 0 0 1em 0;">The graphs
below display their results for cases,
hospitalizations, and deaths. The left and right
graphs correspond to the low and high severity
scenarios, respectively. Briefly:</p>
<ul style="margin-top: 0;">
<li style="margin-bottom: 3.75px; margin-left:
7.5px; margin-right: 0; margin-top: 3.75px;
mso-special-format: bullet;">
<p style="color: #1a1a1a; font-size: 16px;
line-height: 26px; margin: 0; margin-bottom:
0;"><em><strong>Best case scenario</strong></em>
(purple line below; scenario B): By
mid-January 190,000 people catch the virus
every day—about double what the case rate is
today. In this scenario, Omicron would lead to
10,500 hospitalizations per day (a few
thousand more than today) and 1,400 deaths (a
few hundred more than today).</p>
</li>
<li style="margin-bottom: 3.75px; margin-left:
7.5px; margin-right: 0; margin-top: 3.75px;
mso-special-format: bullet;">
<p style="color: #1a1a1a; font-size: 16px;
line-height: 26px; margin: 0 0 1em 0;
margin-bottom: 0;"><em><strong>Worst case
scenario</strong></em> (pink line;
scenario C): By January more than 500,000
people would catch the virus every day, which
is more than double the peak reached last
winter. 30,000 people would be hospitalized
per day and 3,900 would die every day. This
scenario is the most pessimistic and, in my
opinion, won’t happen for two reasons: </p>
<ul style="margin-top: 0;">
<li style="margin-bottom: 3.75px; margin-left:
7.5px; margin-right: 0; margin-top: 3.75px;
mso-special-format: bullet;">
<p style="color: #1a1a1a; font-size: 16px;
line-height: 26px; margin: 0;
margin-bottom: 0;">This model assumes that
Omicron is <em><strong>more</strong></em>
severe than Delta. This is not the case;
in fact, there is considerable debate as
to whether Omicron is less severe.</p>
</li>
<li style="margin-bottom: 3.75px; margin-left:
7.5px; margin-right: 0; margin-top: 3.75px;
mso-special-format: bullet;">
<p style="color: #1a1a1a; font-size: 16px;
line-height: 26px; margin: 0;
margin-bottom: 0;">This model also assumes
that there is no behavior change, which is
also not realistic. People change their
behaviors when cases increase, whether
they realize it or not. </p>
</li>
</ul>
</li>
</ul>
<div class="captioned-image-container-static"
style="font-size: 16px; line-height: 26px;
margin-bottom: 16px; text-align: center;">
<figure style="display: inline-block; margin: 0
auto; width: 100%;">
<table class="image-wrapper" style="margin: 8px
auto; mso-padding-alt: 1em 0 1.6em;"
cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" border="0"
width="100%">
<tbody>
<tr>
<td style="text-align: center;"><br>
</td>
<td class="content" style="text-align:
center;" align="left" width="550"><a
class="image-link" target="_blank"
href="https://email.mg2.substack.com/c/eJxVUtuOrSAM_Zrtm4ar6AMPk5Oc3zAFqptsBQdwZpyvP7h9OglpS6FrrbS1UHCJ6dR7zKW5zFTOHXXA77xiKZiaI2OavNOiV-PImxo4Osih8XmaE-IGftUlHdjsh1m9heJjuP6zgTI6Nk_dzxaBqFko6gYHApwkEgZE2YOStL9p4XAeg0WNX5jOGLBZ9bOUPT_4x4P9rce60OXD5AL21dm41ZTfYMHqZyz2efkKU-KD_fm8A_6xxOjqfV6nPcUlYc7-C2s-F8S9VtwUTF4k8qKpxhz2hfU9tUikMXYQrQHgreAK21HSoQVnODOo1DiILvMONviNAb7zrati3M14h2-R-Ua2AoVRcytIRRHIKhSRQzsyTozh0pBZTJT26kdw2u1habxmhFHKGKOSCso71skZaE_AGIKjtLPqRIElvGh5CLIt7L8eNUlvEMJZnxIUmD28JV6zmqrfjuDLOWEAs6K7x1juXXgPdlowYC1EN0HRtL9k92TkgvB7atdeyF4OitCm8rpYq4I-45HWaGHF3TvcfFzj4nP5B-jLy8c"
rel="" style="border: none; display:
block; height: auto; margin: 0;
padding: 0; text-decoration: none;
width: auto;" moz-do-not-send="true"><img
data-attrs="{"src":"https://bucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/bc4e4b7f-4018-4e28-a058-9230bb35b0f4_1167x431.png","fullscreen":null,"height":406,"width":1100,"resizeWidth":null,"bytes":148695,"alt":null,"title":null,"type":"image/png","href":null}"
alt="" class=""
src="https://cdn.substack.com/image/fetch/w_550,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fbucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fbc4e4b7f-4018-4e28-a058-9230bb35b0f4_1167x431.png"
style="-ms-interpolation-mode:
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moz-do-not-send="true" width="550"
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<td style="text-align: center;"><br>
</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
</figure>
</div>
<div class="captioned-image-container-static"
style="font-size: 16px; line-height: 26px;
margin-bottom: 16px; text-align: center;">
<figure style="display: inline-block; margin: 0
auto; width: 100%;">
<table class="image-wrapper" style="margin: 8px
auto; mso-padding-alt: 1em 0 1.6em;"
cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" border="0"
width="100%">
<tbody>
<tr>
<td style="text-align: center;"><br>
</td>
<td class="content" style="text-align:
center;" align="left" width="550"><a
class="image-link" target="_blank"
href="https://email.mg2.substack.com/c/eJxVUtuOrSAM_Zrtm4aryIMPk5Oc3zAFqptsBQdwZpyvP7h9OglpF4V2NV21UHCJ6Rz3mEtzmamcO44Bv_OKpWBqjoxp8m4UvdKaNxU4Osih8XmaE-IGfh1LOrDZD7N6C8XHcP1nA2VUN89RaTLMXDuBDJXskfazdkoZriwI6dxNC4fzGCyO-IXpjAGbdXyWsucH_3iwv_VYF7p8mFzAvjobtxryGyxY_YzFPi9fy5T4YH8-b8A_lhhdvc_rtKe4JMzZf2GN54K414ybgsmLRF401ZjDvrC-pxaJNMYOojUAvBVcYaslHVpwhjODSulBdJl3sMFvDPCd775qjXsYb_huMr8hw77OzrpWz5S2wupa2TDWSqQUKBMSACdKe_UjCOv2sDR-ZIRRyhijkgrKO9bJGWhPwBiCWtpZdaLAEl60PATZFvbfjJo0bhDCWZ8SFJg9vFu8tJqq347gyzlhALOiu2Us9y68hZ0WDFgT0U1QRtoLQoeeaC4Iv1W79kL2clCENpXXxZoVxjMeaY0WVty9w83HNS4-l39wLMup"
rel="" style="border: none; display:
block; height: auto; margin: 0;
padding: 0; text-decoration: none;
width: auto;" moz-do-not-send="true"><img
data-attrs="{"src":"https://bucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/2e6185cd-9f11-4c94-bb22-5e11a1245aae_1167x402.png","fullscreen":null,"height":379,"width":1100,"resizeWidth":null,"bytes":154592,"alt":null,"title":null,"type":"image/png","href":null}"
alt="" class=""
src="https://cdn.substack.com/image/fetch/w_550,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fbucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F2e6185cd-9f11-4c94-bb22-5e11a1245aae_1167x402.png"
style="-ms-interpolation-mode:
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moz-do-not-send="true" width="550"
height="189.5"></a></td>
<td style="text-align: center;"><br>
</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
</figure>
</div>
<div class="captioned-image-container-static"
style="font-size: 16px; line-height: 26px;
margin-bottom: 16px; text-align: center;">
<figure style="display: inline-block; margin: 0
auto; width: 100%;">
<table class="image-wrapper" style="margin: 8px
auto; mso-padding-alt: 1em 0 1.6em;"
cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" border="0"
width="100%">
<tbody>
<tr>
<td style="text-align: center;"><br>
</td>
<td class="content" style="text-align:
center;" align="left" width="550"><a
class="image-link" target="_blank"
href="https://email.mg2.substack.com/c/eJxVUtuOrSAM_Zrtm4arwoMPk5Oc3zAFi5tsBQdwZpyvP7h9OglpFy3talaxUHCJ6Rz3mEtzmamcO44Bv_OKpWBqjoxp8vMo-kFr3lQwUyVV4_PkEuIGfh1LOrDZD7N6C8XHcL1nijKqm-foOBWUatebvreid0CxJph10irbE3nTwjF7DBZH_MJ0xoDNOj5L2fODfzzY33rsHLp8mFzAvjobtxryGyxYvcNin5evbUp8sD-fN-AfS4xzvbt12lNcEubsv7DGc0Hca8VNweRFIi-aasxhX1jzqUUijbFKtAaAt4IP2GpJVQuz4czgMGglusw72OA3BvjO91y1xy3GG76HzG_oDCeWONpSRedWgNK1H1akJNNGIB-knZTUP0yLbg9L40dGGKWMMSqrirxjnawC9gSMIaildUMnCizhRctDkG1h_0nUpHGDEM6aSlDAeXhPeK1qqn47gi_nhAHMivO9xXJ_hfdepwUD1kKcJygj7QWhqieaC8LvpV3fQvZSDYQ2lXeOtSqMZzzSGi2suPsZNx_XuPhc_gExaMsn"
rel="" style="border: none; display:
block; height: auto; margin: 0;
padding: 0; text-decoration: none;
width: auto;" moz-do-not-send="true"><img
data-attrs="{"src":"https://bucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/fb30c0f1-181d-4a89-95ed-48529b4e375c_859x294.png","fullscreen":null,"height":294,"width":859,"resizeWidth":null,"bytes":93191,"alt":null,"title":null,"type":"image/png","href":null}"
alt="" class=""
src="https://cdn.substack.com/image/fetch/w_550,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fbucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Ffb30c0f1-181d-4a89-95ed-48529b4e375c_859x294.png"
style="-ms-interpolation-mode:
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<td style="text-align: center;"><br>
</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
</figure>
</div>
<p style="color: #1a1a1a; font-size: 16px;
line-height: 26px; margin: 0 0 1em 0;">So, like
everything in epidemiology, the “truth” lies
somewhere between the best and worse case scenario
in the United States.</p>
<p style="color: #1a1a1a; font-size: 16px;
line-height: 26px; margin: 0 0 1em 0;"><strong><code>Boosters</code></strong></p>
<p style="color: #1a1a1a; font-size: 16px;
line-height: 26px; margin: 0 0 1em 0;">Not nearly
enough people have their boosters in the United
States: <a
href="https://email.mg2.substack.com/c/eJw1kMGOrSAMhp_msNMAouKCxWzua5gK1SGDYKCeG99-0JNJGkpL2798Fgi3lC9zpELsPma6DjQR_5eARJjZWTDP3hk1jNPUsXpxQvea-TKvGXEHHwzlE9lxLsFbIJ_iXS-1kGJi34b3oGHVdhWDXValxrGzkxKjdqh7WSc9snA6j9GiwTfmK0VkwXwTHeXVfb3kv2o2vb1rrbPtlt5_ceOAoKEM9gfzU9e9wVofnz3KfAcNJYLQgNt9bHL98SfBvJFcCiGlFL1Qomtl268gBg7LwnHq7Tq2imCLP4Jeiu-bbMu5FKparU07y2aHGK_6VIfC6qE86cphrn4_o6drxghLQPdBRB_OD7R5w4j3Nm4GMmJQXOiBT53i3YfIzbwfej1ywaquS7UrmiudOSQLAQ_vcPcppM0X-gW-eJzR"
rel="" style="color: #0068ef; text-decoration:
none;" moz-do-not-send="true">32%</a> of
eligible Americans and <a
href="https://email.mg2.substack.com/c/eJw1kMGOrSAMhp_msNMAouKCxWzua5gK1SGDYKCeG99-0JNJGkpL2798Fgi3lC9zpELsPma6DjQR_5eARJjZWTDP3hk1jNPUsXpxQvea-TKvGXEHHwzlE9lxLsFbIJ_iXS-1kGJi34b3oGHVdhWDXValxrGzkxKjdqh7WSc9snA6j9GiwTfmK0VkwXwTHeXVfb3kv2o2vb1rrbPtlt5_ceOAoKEM9gfzU9e9wVofnz3KfAcNJYLQgNt9bHL98SfBvJFcCiGlFL1Qomtl268gBg7LwnHq7Tq2imCLP4Jeiu-bbMu5FKparU07y2aHGK_6VIfC6qE86cphrn4_o6drxghLQPdBRB_OD7R5w4j3Nm4GMmJQXOiBT53i3YfIzbwfej1ywaquS7UrmiudOSQLAQ_vcPcppM0X-gW-eJzR"
rel="" style="color: #0068ef; text-decoration:
none;" moz-do-not-send="true">55%</a> of those
65+. Omicron has motivated people to get boosted,
though. Omicron is convincing 1 in 8 unvaccinated
to change their mind, too. </p>
<div class="captioned-image-container-static"
style="font-size: 16px; line-height: 26px;
margin-bottom: 16px; text-align: center;">
<figure style="display: inline-block; margin: 0
auto; width: 100%;">
<table class="image-wrapper" style="margin: 8px
auto; mso-padding-alt: 1em 0 1.6em;"
cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" border="0"
width="100%">
<tbody>
<tr>
<td style="text-align: center;"><br>
</td>
<td class="content" style="text-align:
center;" align="left" width="550"><a
class="image-link" target="_blank"
href="https://email.mg2.substack.com/c/eJxVUtuOrSAM_Zrtm0Zuig88TE5yfsMUKG6yFRzAmXG-_uD26SSkXRTa1XTVQMElplPtMZfmMnM5d1QBv_OKpWBqjoxp9lbxYZwm1lRgiRSy8Xl2CXEDv6qSDmz2Q6_eQPExXP-pJJRMzVPh6DgO2glicJCScCao1ZqjNo5KS25aOKzHYFDhF6YzBmxW9Sxlzw_28aB_6zE2dPnQuYB5dSZuNeQ3WLB6h8U8L1_LlPigfz5vwD6WGG29u3XeU1wS5uy_sMZzQdxrxk1BxUUiLppq9GFeWN9Ti73Q2kjeagDWcjZiOwkiW7CaUY3jOEneZdbBBr8xwHe--6o17mG84bvJ_IaDBGTMDi3tcWw5mlqKW2g5DALZaC04nAkh0w8XrNvD0nhFe0oIpZQIwgnraCcckKEHrXuchHFjxwss4UXKg_fbQv-bUZPUBiGc9SlBAefh3eKl1Vz9dgRfzhkD6BXtLWO5d-Et7LxgwJqIdoaiyMB7Iod-Yrxnt2rXXohByLEnTeW1sWYFdcYjrdHAiru3uPm4xsXn8g8lA8z5"
rel="" style="border: none; display:
block; height: auto; margin: 0;
padding: 0; text-decoration: none;
width: auto;" moz-do-not-send="true"><img
data-attrs="{"src":"https://bucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/68ae33d6-20e7-4ec8-a4da-4a65e37ddafe_1119x453.png","fullscreen":null,"height":445,"width":1100,"resizeWidth":602,"bytes":136997,"alt":null,"title":null,"type":"image/png","href":null}"
alt="" class="wide-image"
src="https://cdn.substack.com/image/fetch/w_550,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fbucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F68ae33d6-20e7-4ec8-a4da-4a65e37ddafe_1119x453.png"
style="-ms-interpolation-mode:
bicubic; border: none !important;
display: block; height: auto;
margin: 0 auto; margin-bottom: 0;
max-width: 550px; vertical-align:
middle; width: 100%;"
moz-do-not-send="true" width="550"
height="222.5"></a></td>
<td style="text-align: center;"><br>
</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
</figure>
</div>
<p style="color: #1a1a1a; font-size: 16px;
line-height: 26px; margin: 0 0 1em 0;">One thing
that’s increasingly obvious is how important
boosters be in our projections. While we will
start seeing an uptick in cases, we will continue
to see a distinct pattern between unvaccinated,
vaccinated, and boosted. Massachusetts has a great
<a
href="https://email.mg2.substack.com/c/eJwtkcGOhCAMhp9muGmEUdQDh73sa5gK1SGDYKCM8e0XnU1IKaX8bT80EK4hnmoPidhlJjp3VB6P5JAII8sJ42SNamU_jk9WHMOHbmA2TUtE3MA6RTEj2_PsrAaywV_5YuCCj-ylltlo2Y7YSamF5KPsJZrZSC5g6OYieZeFbCx6jQo_GM_gkTn1ItrT4_nzEL9lHcdRb5BSvYZPOZqgi9XhY03Fx0pDwlTBFvxaLdm5s_qA1taXAU1lvbElL4NLxa8uFdCvMhlRuqUO7wIYZpVoBOdCCN7xlj9rUXcLcNnAPDc4dnrp65Zg9W9Oj7bZVlGnPCcC_a512FhUG3h_lqsIBIuFdIcLmansW_aWzgk9zA7NFxp9yd8YpxU9xqvhCUhx2TZ8kM34bJt_RtcvdLIb-oazUteE8sqrM-ToggaHuzW42eDCahP9ARVXpBc"
rel="" style="color: #0068ef; text-decoration:
none;" moz-do-not-send="true">graph</a>
illustrating this effect so far. </p>
<div class="captioned-image-container-static"
style="font-size: 16px; line-height: 26px;
margin-bottom: 16px; text-align: center;">
<figure style="display: inline-block; margin: 0
auto; width: 100%;">
<table class="image-wrapper" style="margin: 8px
auto; mso-padding-alt: 1em 0 1.6em;"
cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" border="0"
width="100%">
<tbody>
<tr>
<td style="text-align: center;"><br>
</td>
<td class="content" style="text-align:
center;" align="left" width="482"><a
class="image-link" target="_blank"
href="https://email.mg2.substack.com/c/eJxVUsuu3CAM_ZrJLhHPBBZZXF2pvxEZcDJ0EkiB3Nv060sm3VRC9sFgH8vHFgouMZ3jHnNpLjOVc8cx4HdesRRMzZExTd6Noh-05k0FjiqpGp-nOSFu4NexpAOb_TCrt1B8DNd_piijunmOSjNNFHJAPaNV0s1iEMB67QyTYuY3LRzOY7A44hemMwZs1vFZyp4f_OPBftRjXejyYXIB--ps3GrIb7Bg9TMW-7x8LVPig33-ugH_WGJ09T6v057ikjBn_4U1ngviXjNuCiYvEnnRVGMO-8L6nlok0hirRGsAeCv4gK2WVLXgDGcGh0Er0WXewQZ_YoDvfPdVa9zDeMN3k_kNQahZApEt0cS2wtC5VUb1LTdc0J5xJeww6Z7_Hpjsfu64NH5khFHKGKOSCso71skZaE_AGIJa2nnoRIElvGh5CLIt7L8ZNWncIISzPiUoMHt4t3hpNVW_HcGXc8IAZkV3y1juXXgLOy0YsCaim6CMtBeEqp5oLsg_1a69kL1UA6FN5XWxZoXxjEdao4UVd-9w83GNi8_lLzC8y2A"
rel="" style="border: none; display:
block; height: auto; margin: 0;
padding: 0; text-decoration: none;
width: auto;" moz-do-not-send="true"><img
data-attrs="{"src":"https://bucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/a48f5a05-090c-4b1f-8b86-3b34162384c7_963x725.jpeg","fullscreen":null,"height":725,"width":963,"resizeWidth":482,"bytes":96466,"alt":null,"title":null,"type":"image/jpeg","href":null}"
alt="" class=""
src="https://cdn.substack.com/image/fetch/w_482,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fbucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fa48f5a05-090c-4b1f-8b86-3b34162384c7_963x725.jpeg"
style="-ms-interpolation-mode:
bicubic; border: none !important;
display: block; height: auto;
margin: 0 auto; margin-bottom: 0;
max-width: 100%; vertical-align:
middle; width: auto;"
moz-do-not-send="true" width="482"
height="362.87642782969886"></a></td>
<td style="text-align: center;"><br>
</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
<figcaption class="image-caption" style="color:
#767676; font-family: sans-serif; font-size:
14px; font-weight: 300; line-height: 1.4em;
text-align: center;">(MA DPH)</figcaption></figure>
</div>
<p style="color: #1a1a1a; font-size: 16px;
line-height: 26px; margin: 0 0 1em 0;">We also <em><strong>really</strong></em>
need guidance for the J&J folks. A new <a
href="https://email.mg2.substack.com/c/eJwlUEuO7CAMPE2zRJjwCQsWs3nXiAg4GTQJRMTpfrn90NOSZZfKLpVcMRCutd3-qCexd5voPtAXfJ0bEmFj14ltyskrY50bWAcJRj2yfE5LQ9xD3jy1C9lxzVuOgXIt73s5ggTHvr2N0RrpjLIuDdYiaJ3mxSx6SUY5Fz-24UoZS0SPT2x3Lcg2_010nI_h6yH_9Xq9XnzH1P7nJ69t7UyshbBQRyA4gICOpJDAQXJQXII01mr9BJb9mwcpJWhQMHDJ9RLAiDDPAp2Oi-WKwlp-gB5K7Kvk5zWfFOIPj3Vnze-hlLuvWqCw5HD-0f3lqc_9KpnuCUuYN0yfNOgT6V8-04oFuxDTFMiDUQJGI9ygxPB5_h2vNnq0Alj3TbWrir_r1bYaw4ZHTrjnutU1n_QLeZWQIw"
rel="" style="color: #0068ef; text-decoration:
none;" moz-do-not-send="true">study</a> showed
the effectiveness of boosters with vaccines
distributed in the United States. While 1 mRNA
booster (brown squares) after JJ (green dots)
helps, it doesn’t help as much as the 3 mRNA
series. In other words, it looks JJ people need 2
mRNA shots for full neutralizing antibody
protection instead of just one. </p>
<div class="captioned-image-container-static"
style="font-size: 16px; line-height: 26px;
margin-bottom: 16px; text-align: center;">
<figure style="display: inline-block; margin: 0
auto; width: 100%;">
<table class="image-wrapper" style="margin: 8px
auto; mso-padding-alt: 1em 0 1.6em;"
cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" border="0"
width="100%">
<tbody>
<tr>
<td style="text-align: center;"><br>
</td>
<td class="content" style="text-align:
center;" align="left" width="342"><a
class="image-link" target="_blank"
href="https://email.mg2.substack.com/c/eJxVUl2PpSAM_TXXNw2fCg8-TDaZv2EKVC97FVzAmXF__eL1aRPSHgrtaXpqoeAS0znuMZfmMlM5dxwDfucVS8HUHBnT5N0o-kFr3lTgqJKq8XmaE-IGfh1LOrDZD7N6C8XHcP1nijKqm-fIUc-coKUoCO-5GBzhKLgehJZWOHHTwuE8BosjfmE6Y8BmHZ-l7PnBPx7ssx7rQpcPkwvYV2fjVkN-gwWrn7HY5-VrmRIf7NefG_CPJUZX7_M67SkuCXP2X1jjuSDuNeOmYPIikRdNNeawL6zvqUUijbFKtAaAt4IP2GpJVQvOcGZwGLQSXeYdbPA3BvjOd1-1xj2MN3w3md-QGwLCcNoiU9gKJYcWZsZbzYlCIJpRPkxaq5-B993vHZfGj4wwShljVFJBecc6OQPtCRhDsA5wHjpRYAkvWh6CbAv7b0ZNGjcI4axPCQrMHt4tXlpN1W9H8OWcMIBZ0d0ylnsX3sJOCwasiegmKCPtBaGqJ5pXIW_Vrr2QvVQDoU3ldbFmhfGMR1qjhRV373DzcY2Lz-Uf9S3KwQ"
rel="" style="border: none; display:
block; height: auto; margin: 0;
padding: 0; text-decoration: none;
width: auto;" moz-do-not-send="true"><img
data-attrs="{"src":"https://bucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/3b0a4b31-e28e-4857-af23-9308ea092137_998x736.jpeg","fullscreen":null,"height":736,"width":998,"resizeWidth":342,"bytes":74771,"alt":null,"title":null,"type":"image/jpeg","href":null}"
alt="" class=""
src="https://cdn.substack.com/image/fetch/w_342,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fbucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F3b0a4b31-e28e-4857-af23-9308ea092137_998x736.jpeg"
style="-ms-interpolation-mode:
bicubic; border: none !important;
display: block; height: auto;
margin: 0 auto; margin-bottom: 0;
max-width: 100%; vertical-align:
middle; width: auto;"
moz-do-not-send="true" width="342"
height="252.21643286573146"></a></td>
<td style="text-align: center;"><br>
</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
<figcaption class="image-caption" style="color:
#767676; font-family: sans-serif; font-size:
14px; font-weight: 300; line-height: 1.4em;
text-align: center;">Garcia-Beltran et al.,
mRNA-based COVID-19 vaccine boosters induce
neutralizing immunity against SARS-CoV-2
Omicron variant. Source <a
href="https://email.mg2.substack.com/c/eJwlUEuO7CAMPE2zRJjwCQsWs3nXiAg4GTQJRMTpfrn90NOSZZfKLpVcMRCutd3-qCexd5voPtAXfJ0bEmFj14ltyskrY50bWAcJRj2yfE5LQ9xD3jy1C9lxzVuOgXIt73s5ggTHvr2N0RrpjLIuDdYiaJ3mxSx6SUY5Fz-24UoZS0SPT2x3Lcg2_010nI_h6yH_9Xq9XnzH1P7nJ69t7UyshbBQRyA4gICOpJDAQXJQXII01mr9BJb9mwcpJWhQMHDJ9RLAiDDPAp2Oi-WKwlp-gB5K7Kvk5zWfFOIPj3Vnze-hlLuvWqCw5HD-0f3lqc_9KpnuCUuYN0yfNOgT6V8-04oFuxDTFMiDUQJGI9ygxPB5_h2vNnq0Alj3TbWrir_r1bYaw4ZHTrjnutU1n_QLeZWQIw"
rel="" moz-do-not-send="true">Here</a></figcaption></figure>
</div>
<p style="color: #1a1a1a; font-size: 16px;
line-height: 26px; margin: 0 0 1em 0;">But
neutralizing antibodies isn’t the only line of
defense. Another <a
href="https://email.mg2.substack.com/c/eJwlkUuO7CAMRVcTZhUBIb8Bg5aeehvIAZNCTSDi06Xs_pGOhLjGXGN0rKHgHtMlz5gLuTdVrhNlwE_2WAomUjMm5YwU07yuA2mBYcu4EJeVTYgHOC9LqkjOunmnobgYbj9fGGcreUsQQqwbt1RvnE58hHXaxGiFBot8sPRpC9U4DBol_mK6YkDi5buUM3fDV8e_29Im9J937F0o7XSgcdDURJ1vQQvVl1eONWlsic1XfJ3pMX8wmOu11bRjykqzVbWHdAy5-ue_bDSoOeWsP43thu9sf1MO3fCPA4dZzKuaiZO3gXHO2cgEG3rejxbYRGHbKK6jtnMvCuzhh5VO0GPnfa5bLqB_eh0PkuQBIVztKkEB6yD_pRs21fSowZVLYYDNo3mIlmcsf4zVjgFbIRoFRbJJULZMdB0EHR6A94jGaVxmykjra2KrCvJqPHzU4PF0Bg8XfdxdLv8BMU-rrw"
rel="" style="color: #0068ef; text-decoration:
none;" moz-do-not-send="true">study </a>found
T-cells among those who received one or two doses
of the J&J only dropped with Omicron by 30%.
So, people with 1 mRNA booster after JJ should
largely stay out of the hospital. I’m really
hoping it doesn’t take J&J, the FDA and/or the
CDC too long to comment on this. We need guidance
now. </p>
<p style="color: #1a1a1a; font-size: 16px;
line-height: 26px; margin: 0 0 1em 0;"><strong><code>Bottom
line</code></strong></p>
<p style="color: #1a1a1a; font-size: 16px;
line-height: 26px; margin: 0 0 1em 0;">As
expected, Omicron is taking hold in the United
States and case rates will start skyrocketing
across the country. What this means for our
hospital systems is yet to be seen. As with
everything in public health, we prepare for the
worst and hope for the best.</p>
<p style="color: #1a1a1a; font-size: 16px;
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