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This NY Times article by Tom Friedman covers a lot of ground. I
found it to be a very worthwhile read. <br>
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<p class="MsoNormal">Manny <br>
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<p class="css-1ca3kv7">Thomas L. Friedman</p>
<h1 id="link-7df8d4f4" data-testid="headline">Mr. Trump, Do You
Realize How Much the World Has Changed Since You Were President?</h1>
<p class="MsoNormal"> Nov. 26, 2024</p>
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<![endif]--><figcaption data-testid="photoviewer-children-ImageCaption"
class="css-ktho12 e3rygrp0">By <a
href="https://www.nytimes.com/by/thomas-l-friedman"
itemprop="name" moz-do-not-send="true"><span
style="mso-fareast-font-family:"Times New
Roman";mso-fareast-theme-font:major-fareast">Thomas L.
Friedman</span></a>
<p class="css-1fovwrw">Opinion Columnist</p>
<section name="articleBody" class="meteredContent css-1r7ky0e">Donald
Trump left the White House nearly four years ago. Given his
self-confidence, I suspect he is now thinking: “What could be
so different? I’ve got this.”
<p class="css-at9mc1">Well, I just traveled from a reporting
trip in Tel Aviv to a conference in the United Arab Emirates
to a deep dive with Google’s DeepMind artificial
intelligence team in London, and I think the president-elect
would be wise to remember a famous aphorism: There are
decades when nothing happens, and there are weeks when
decades happen.</p>
<p class="css-at9mc1">What I saw and heard exposed me to three
giant, shifting tectonic plates that will have profound
implications for the new administration.</p>
<p class="css-at9mc1"><strong>The most significant
geopolitical event</strong></p>
<p class="css-at9mc1">In just the last two months, the Israeli
military has inflicted a defeat on Iran that approaches its
1967 Six-Day War defeat of Egypt, Syria and Jordan. Full
stop. Let’s review:</p>
<p class="css-at9mc1">Over the past few decades, Iran built a
formidable threat network that seemed to put Israel into an
octopuslike grip. It became widely accepted that Israel was
deterred from striking at Iran’s nuclear facilities because
Iran had armed the Hezbollah militia in Lebanon with enough
precision rockets to destroy Israel’s ports, airports,
high-tech factories, air bases and infrastructure.</p>
<aside class="css-ew4tgv"></aside>
Not so fast. It turned out that the Mossad and Israel’s cyber
Unit 8200 had been forging what became one of the country’s
greatest intelligence successes ever. They planted explosive
devices in the pagers and walkie-talkies used by Hezbollah’s
military commanders, developed human and technological
tracking capabilities to find Hezbollah’s top leaders,
painstakingly identified storage facilities in Lebanon and
Syria for Hezbollah’s most lethal precision rockets and then
systematically took many of them out by air <a
href="https://www.reuters.com/graphics/ISRAEL-PALESTINIANS/HEZBOLLAH-PAGERS/mopawkkwjpa/"
target="_blank" title="" moz-do-not-send="true"><span
style="mso-fareast-font-family:"Times New
Roman"; mso-fareast-theme-font:major-fareast">in
October</span></a>.
<p class="css-at9mc1">The result is that Hezbollah looks
likely to accept <a
href="https://www.reuters.com/world/lebanese-sources-biden-macron-set-announce-hezbollah-israel-ceasefire-deal-2024-11-25/"
target="_blank" title="" moz-do-not-send="true"><span
style="mso-fareast-font-family:"Times New
Roman"; mso-fareast-theme-font:major-fareast">a
60-day cease-fire</span></a> with Israel in Lebanon
negotiated by the U.S. mediator Amos Hochstein. This is a
big deal. It means that, even if just for 60 days, Hezbollah
and, by extension, Iran have decided to delink themselves
from Hamas in Gaza and stop the firing from Lebanon for the
first time since Oct. 8, 2023, the day after Hamas invaded
Israel. We will see if it lasts, but if it does, it will
increase the pressure on Hamas to agree to a cease-fire and
hostage release with Israel, more on Israel’s terms. </p>
<p class="css-at9mc1">There is a reason for this. Hezbollah’s
mother ship has suffered a real blow. <a
href="https://www.timesofisrael.com/liveblog_entry/netanyahu-says-israel-has-destroyed-all-four-of-irans-s-300-batteries/"
target="_blank" title="" moz-do-not-send="true"><span
style="mso-fareast-font-family:"Times New
Roman"; mso-fareast-theme-font:major-fareast">According
to Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu</span></a>,
Israel’s April strike on Iran eliminated one of four
Russian-supplied S-300 surface-to-air missile defense
batteries around Tehran, and Israel destroyed the remaining
three batteries on Oct. 26. Israel <a
href="https://www.timesofisrael.com/liveblog_entry/netanyahu-says-israels-retaliatory-strike-on-iran-hit-component-of-its-nuke-program/"
target="_blank" title="" moz-do-not-send="true"><span
style="mso-fareast-font-family:"Times New
Roman"; mso-fareast-theme-font:major-fareast">also
damaged</span></a> Iran’s ballistic missile production
capabilities and its ability to produce the solid fuel used
in long-range ballistic missiles. In addition, <a
href="https://www.axios.com/2024/11/15/iran-israel-destroyed-active-nuclear-weapons-research-facility"
target="_blank" title="" moz-do-not-send="true"><span
style="mso-fareast-font-family:"Times New
Roman"; mso-fareast-theme-font:major-fareast">according
to Axios</span></a>, Israel’s Oct. 26 strike on Iran,
which was a response to an earlier Iranian attack on Israel,
also destroyed equipment used to create the explosives that
surround uranium in a nuclear device, setting back Iran’s
efforts in nuclear weapons research.</p>
<p class="css-at9mc1">A senior Israeli defense official told
me that the Oct. 26 attack on Iran “was lethal, precise and
a surprise.” And up to now, the Iranians “don’t know
technologically how we hit them. So they are at the most
vulnerable point they have been in this generation: Hamas is
not there for them, Hezbollah is not there for them, their
air defenses are not there anymore, their ability to
retaliate is sharply diminished, and they are worried about
Trump.”</p>
<p class="css-at9mc1">Which means that Tehran is either riper
than ever for negotiations to curb its nuclear program or
riper than ever for an attack by Israel or the Trump
administration — or both — to destroy those nuclear
facilities. Either way, Trump will face choices he did not
have four years ago.</p>
<p class="css-at9mc1"><strong></strong></p>
<aside class="css-ew4tgv"></aside>
<strong>It is not only a new Iran that Trump will be dealing
with but also a new Israel</strong>
<p class="css-at9mc1">There were legitimate reasons President
Biden <a
href="https://www.yahoo.com/news/biden-condemns-icc-arrest-warrants-085851272.html"
target="_blank" title="" moz-do-not-send="true"><span
style="mso-fareast-font-family:"Times New
Roman"; mso-fareast-theme-font:major-fareast">denounced</span></a>
the International Criminal Court’s arrest warrants against
Netanyahu and his former defense minister Yoav Gallant,
accusing them of war crimes in Gaza against a Hamas enemy
that <a
href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2024/06/12/hamas-death-toll-gaza-sinwar-messages/"
target="_blank" title="" moz-do-not-send="true"><span
style="mso-fareast-font-family:"Times New
Roman"; mso-fareast-theme-font:major-fareast">deliberately
embedded</span></a> itself among civilians. The same
court <a
href="https://slate.com/news-and-politics/2013/09/assads-war-crimes-why-hasnt-he-been-charged-with-war-crimes-by-the-international-criminal-court.html"
target="_blank" title="" moz-do-not-send="true"><span
style="mso-fareast-font-family:"Times New
Roman"; mso-fareast-theme-font:major-fareast">never
issued</span></a> an arrest warrant for President Bashar
al-Assad of Syria, whose army killed <a
href="https://www.cfr.org/article/syrias-civil-war"
target="_blank" title="" moz-do-not-send="true"><span
style="mso-fareast-font-family:"Times New
Roman";mso-fareast-theme-font:major-fareast">hundreds
of thousands</span></a> of his own people. The I.C.C.
said Syria is not a member. But neither is Israel. It is
also odd that the I.C.C. issued a warrant only for the Hamas
leader Mohammed Deif, who is widely believed to be dead, and
not for the very much alive <a
href="https://www.jpost.com/breaking-news/article-825130"
target="_blank" title="" moz-do-not-send="true"><span
style="mso-fareast-font-family:"Times New
Roman";mso-fareast-theme-font: major-fareast">Muhammad
Sinwar</span></a> (the younger brother of the late Hamas
leader Yahya Sinwar), who is now reportedly running Hamas in
Gaza and was a commander in the Oct. 7 attack on Israel.</p>
<p class="css-at9mc1">But while the I.C.C. warrants are
questionable, they were also avoidable. The strategy that
Netanyahu has imposed on his military is one of the ugliest
in Israel’s history: Go into Gaza, destroy as much of Hamas
as you can, don’t be too worried about civilian casualties,
then leave the remnants of Hamas in charge to loot food
convoys and intimidate the local population — then rinse and
repeat. Go back in, smash and leave no one better in charge,
creating a permanent Somalia on Israel’s border.</p>
<p class="css-at9mc1">Why is he doing this? Because Bibi is
being directed by the far-right Jewish supremacists he needs
to stay in power and possibly out of prison on charges of
corruption. And the <a
href="https://www.haaretz.com/opinion/editorial/2024-10-08/ty-article/israels-far-right-government-wants-to-use-oct-7-to-occupy-gaza-and-settle-it-with-jews/00000192-6897-ded3-a7bb-7df766910000"
target="_blank" title="" moz-do-not-send="true"><span
style="mso-fareast-font-family:"Times New
Roman"; mso-fareast-theme-font:major-fareast">stated
goal</span></a> of those Jewish supremacists is to
extend Israeli settlements from the West Bank right through
Gaza. They oppose any scenario in which the Palestinian
Authority is gradually installed in Gaza as part of an Arab
peacekeeping force to replace Hamas. They fear the
Palestinian Authority might then become a legitimate partner
for a two-state solution.</p>
<p class="css-at9mc1">When you fight a war with this many <a
href="https://www.haaretz.com/magazine/2024-03-07/ty-article-magazine/.premium/its-a-war-of-cruel-rich-people-israels-form-of-combat-in-gaza-is-unusually-wasteful/0000018e-1aa8-d1cc-abfe-dfadbc010000?utm_source=App_Share&utm_medium=iOS_Native"
target="_blank" title="" moz-do-not-send="true"><span
style="mso-fareast-font-family:"Times New
Roman"; mso-fareast-theme-font:major-fareast">civilian
casualties for a year and offer no vision of peace</span></a>
with the other side, you invite the I.C.C.</p>
<p class="css-at9mc1">Attention, President-elect Trump:
Netanyahu will tell you that Israel is defending the free
world in defeating the dark forces of Hamas, Hezbollah and
Iran. There is truth in that. But there is also truth in the
fact that he is doing it to defend a Jewish supremacist
apartheid vision in the West Bank and Gaza. It’s a dirty
business. If you just unquestionably wrap your arms around
him, you will get yourself and America dirty, too. You will
also ensure that your Jewish grandchildren will one day
learn what it is to be Jewish in a world where the Jewish
state is a pariah.</p>
<p class="css-at9mc1"><strong></strong></p>
<aside class="css-ew4tgv"></aside>
<strong>Artificial general intelligence is probably coming on
Trump’s watch</strong>
<p class="css-at9mc1">Polymathic artificial general
intelligence, or A.G.I., was still largely in the realm of
science fiction when Trump left office four years ago. It is
fast becoming nonfiction. And A.S.I. — artificial super
intelligence — may be one day as well.</p>
<p class="css-at9mc1">A.G.I. means machines will be endowed
with intelligence as good as the smartest human in any
field, but because of its capabilities to integrate learning
across many fields, it will probably become better than any
average doctor, lawyer or computer programmer. A.S.I. is a
computer brain that can exceed what any human can do in any
field and then, with its polymathic ability, it could
produce insights far beyond anything humans could do or even
imagine. It might even invent its own language we don’t
understand.</p>
<p class="css-at9mc1">How we adapt to A.G.I. was not part of
the 2024 presidential campaign. I predict it will be a
central theme of the 2028 election. Between now and then,
every leader in the world — but particularly the presidents
of America and China, the two A.I. superpowers — will be
judged by how well they enable their countries to get the
best and cushion the worst from the coming A.I. storm.</p>
<p class="css-at9mc1">From what I heard from leading A.I.
scientists and Nobel Prize winners at Google DeepMind’s
conference on how A.I. is already driving breakthroughs in
scientific discovery, A.G.I. is likely to be achieved in the
next three to five years.</p>
<p class="css-at9mc1">Two DeepMind scientists just won the
Nobel Prize in Chemistry for their A.I. AlphaFold system,
which predicts proteins’ structures and is already being
used by scientists to invent drugs and materials all over
the world. Now DeepMind is working on <a
href="https://deepmind.google/discover/blog/graphcast-ai-model-for-faster-and-more-accurate-global-weather-forecasting/"
target="_blank" title="" moz-do-not-send="true"><span
style="mso-fareast-font-family:"Times New
Roman"; mso-fareast-theme-font:major-fareast">GraphCast</span></a>,
an A.I. system that can produce staggeringly precise 10-day
weather forecasts in less than a minute, and on <a
href="https://deepmind.google/discover/blog/millions-of-new-materials-discovered-with-deep-learning/"
target="_blank" title="" moz-do-not-send="true"><span
style="mso-fareast-font-family:"Times New
Roman"; mso-fareast-theme-font:major-fareast">Gnome</span></a>,
which has identified some 2.2 million new inorganic crystals
that could be useful in manufacturing everything from
computer chips to batteries to solar panels.</p>
<aside class="css-ew4tgv"></aside>
It’s the tip of an iceberg. It will change or challenge
virtually every job. While I was in Tel Aviv, I visited the
lab of Mentee Robotics, an Israeli start-up, and was given a
demonstration of a humanoid robot, roughly my height, powered
by sensors and A.I. with humanlike hand dexterity, a voice and
perception that, as its <a
href="https://www.menteebot.com/company/" target="_blank"
title="" moz-do-not-send="true"><span
style="mso-fareast-font-family:"Times New
Roman";mso-fareast-theme-font:major-fareast">website
says</span></a>, “can be personalized and adjusted to
different environments and tasks using natural human
interaction.”
<p class="css-at9mc1">President-elect Trump, if you think
blue-collar workers without college degrees are facing
challenges today, wait until four years from now.</p>
<p class="css-at9mc1">But that’s not Trump’s only challenge.
If these A.I. powers fall into the wrong hands or are used
by existing powers in the wrong ways, we could be dealing
with possibly civilizational extinction events.</p>
<p class="css-at9mc1">Which is why we need to be discussing
systems of A.I. control now. And it’s why two DeepMind
co-founders, Shane Legg and Demis Hassabis, were signers of
a 23-word open letter, issued in May 2023, along with other
leaders of the A.I. universe, <a
href="https://www.safe.ai/work/statement-on-ai-risk"
target="_blank" title="" moz-do-not-send="true"><span
style="mso-fareast-font-family:"Times New
Roman";mso-fareast-theme-font:major-fareast">which
declared</span></a>, “Mitigating the risk of extinction
from A.I. should be a global priority alongside other
societal-scale risks such as pandemics and nuclear war.”</p>
<p class="css-at9mc1">But this can’t just be left to the
companies. We tried that with social networks, and it ended
badly.</p>
<aside class="css-ew4tgv"></aside>
President-elect Trump, you may think that your second term
will be judged by how many tariffs you impose on China. I beg
to differ. When it comes to U.S.-China relations, I think your
legacy — as well as President Xi Jinping’s — will be
determined by how quickly, effectively and collaboratively the
United States and China come up with a shared technical and
ethical framework embedded in each A.I. system that prevents
it from becoming destructive on its own — without human
direction — or being useful to bad actors who might want to
deploy it for destructive purposes.
<p class="css-at9mc1">History will not look kindly on you,
President-elect Trump, if you choose to prioritize the price
of toys for American tots over an agreement with China on
the behavior of A.I. bots.</p>
<p class="css-798hid"><em>The Times is committed to publishing
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</section>
<aside class="css-ew4tgv"></aside>
Thomas L. Friedman is the foreign affairs Opinion columnist. He
joined the paper in 1981 and has won three Pulitzer Prizes. He
is the author of seven books, including “From Beirut to
Jerusalem,” which won the National Book Award. <span
class="css-4w91ra"><a href="https://twitter.com/tomfriedman"
target="_blank" moz-do-not-send="true"><span class="css-0"><span
style="color:blue">@</span></span><span
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</span>
<p class="MsoNormal">A version of this article appears in print
on <span class="css-1dmwf73"><span data-testid="todays-date"
datetime="2024-11-27T05:00:00.000Z">Nov. 27, 2024</span></span>,
Section A, Page 19 of the New York edition with the headline:
Three Challenges Will Shape Trump’s Legacy. </p>
</figcaption> </div>
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