[Hac-announce] Fwd: Omicron Update: Dec 22
Manny Sholem Ratafia
manny at ratafias.com
Wed Dec 22 11:09:09 EST 2021
Here is the latest review of the COVID-19 situation from epidemiologist
Katelyn Jetelina, MPH PhD. I think this summarizes things better than
any other single write-up that I've seen so far. It's pretty detailed
and you may not want to read it all, so I've quoted some highlights. --Manny
/Omicron will spread through immune evasion and come and go, while Delta
could persist onward. //
//
//South Africa’s hospitalizations remain about 50% of what they were for
the Delta wave. Deaths continue to increase, but also much, much lower
than before. Is this because //immunity is working//or because //Omicron
is less severe//? We don’t know yet...Once someone got to the hospital,
the odds of disease becoming severe was the same as Delta. So if the
immune system was breached, Omicron did the same damage as Delta.//
//
//It will be weeks or months until data crystallizes and we have a clear
picture of Omicron severity. What all this means for hospitalizations
and deaths in places like the United States remains unknown. //
//
//The Northeast has, by far, the most cases right now. Washington DC is
the leader (//134
<https://email.mg2.substack.com/c/eJwlUMuOwyAM_Jpy2wgIeR047GV_I3LATVEJRGAa5e-XNJLltzXjMUC4xnTqPWZil5vp3FEHPLJHIkysZEyzs1r1wzS1rCZWjN3IXJ6fCXED5zWlgmwvi3cGyMVw7ctRSDGxlxYwDlLwZeLS4jC2FkQ_CaWEErYdlv6GhWIdBoMaP5jOGJB5_SLa86P9fci_asdxNOEkt2FuTNxqx4VKEAy5D9ZKcilqKLk6Ez_O_hjIdfdFm2dOX2MhpRRdBW4b2XTPSoTDsnCcOvMcGkWwhregh-LbKptclkxg3hcYS3qDEM46SkDwdPDlcP0817iV4OicMcDi0d5y0K3pV6B5xVCZEtoZSItecTH2fGoVb-_vL327vhsHLljFtbFeBX3Gknw04HF3FjcXfVxdpn-jS5PO>//cases
per 100,000) in which cases have increased //440%
<https://email.mg2.substack.com/c/eJwlUMuOwyAM_Jpy2wgIeR047GV_I3LATVEJRGAa5e-XNJLltzXjMUC4xnTqPWZil5vp3FEHPLJHIkysZEyzs1r1wzS1rCZWjN3IXJ6fCXED5zWlgmwvi3cGyMVw7ctRSDGxlxYwDlLwZeLS4jC2FkQ_CaWEErYdlv6GhWIdBoMaP5jOGJB5_SLa86P9fci_asdxNOEkt2FuTNxqx4VKEAy5D9ZKcilqKLk6Ez_O_hjIdfdFm2dOX2MhpRRdBW4b2XTPSoTDsnCcOvMcGkWwhregh-LbKptclkxg3hcYS3qDEM46SkDwdPDlcP0817iV4OicMcDi0d5y0K3pV6B5xVCZEtoZSItecTH2fGoVb-_vL327vhsHLljFtbFeBX3Gknw04HF3FjcXfVxdpn-jS5PO>//in
the past two weeks. This is followed by New York City with 121 cases per
100K and a 342% increase.//
//
//Nationwide hospitalizations are only up a modest 13% and deaths
continue to remain “low” at 1,351 deaths per day. But severe disease
patterns lag cases 3-4 weeks, so we will see what happens in a few weeks.//
//
//Not nearly enough people have their boosters in the United States:
//32%
<https://email.mg2.substack.com/c/eJw1kMGOrSAMhp_msNMAouKCxWzua5gK1SGDYKCeG99-0JNJGkpL2798Fgi3lC9zpELsPma6DjQR_5eARJjZWTDP3hk1jNPUsXpxQvea-TKvGXEHHwzlE9lxLsFbIJ_iXS-1kGJi34b3oGHVdhWDXValxrGzkxKjdqh7WSc9snA6j9GiwTfmK0VkwXwTHeXVfb3kv2o2vb1rrbPtlt5_ceOAoKEM9gfzU9e9wVofnz3KfAcNJYLQgNt9bHL98SfBvJFcCiGlFL1Qomtl268gBg7LwnHq7Tq2imCLP4Jeiu-bbMu5FKparU07y2aHGK_6VIfC6qE86cphrn4_o6drxghLQPdBRB_OD7R5w4j3Nm4GMmJQXOiBT53i3YfIzbwfej1ywaquS7UrmiudOSQLAQ_vcPcppM0X-gW-eJzR>//of
eligible Americans and //55%
<https://email.mg2.substack.com/c/eJw1kMGOrSAMhp_msNMAouKCxWzua5gK1SGDYKCeG99-0JNJGkpL2798Fgi3lC9zpELsPma6DjQR_5eARJjZWTDP3hk1jNPUsXpxQvea-TKvGXEHHwzlE9lxLsFbIJ_iXS-1kGJi34b3oGHVdhWDXValxrGzkxKjdqh7WSc9snA6j9GiwTfmK0VkwXwTHeXVfb3kv2o2vb1rrbPtlt5_ceOAoKEM9gfzU9e9wVofnz3KfAcNJYLQgNt9bHL98SfBvJFcCiGlFL1Qomtl268gBg7LwnHq7Tq2imCLP4Jeiu-bbMu5FKparU07y2aHGK_6VIfC6qE86cphrn4_o6drxghLQPdBRB_OD7R5w4j3Nm4GMmJQXOiBT53i3YfIzbwfej1ywaquS7UrmiudOSQLAQ_vcPcppM0X-gW-eJzR>//of
those 65+. //
//
//...it looks JJ people need 2 mRNA shots for full neutralizing antibody
protection instead of just one. //
//
//As expected, Omicron is taking hold in the United States and case
rates will start skyrocketing across the country. What this means for
our hospital systems is yet to be seen. As with everything in public
health, we prepare for the worst and hope for the best./
--
"Fight for the things that you care about, but do it in a way that will lead others to join you."
― Ruth Bader Ginsburg
-------- Forwarded Message --------
Subject: Omicron Update: Dec 22
Date: Wed, 22 Dec 2021 15:14:13 +0000
From: Katelyn Jetelina from Your Local Epidemiologist
<yourlocalepidemiologist at substack.com>
Reply-To: Katelyn Jetelina from Your Local Epidemiologist
<reply+r6mh9&a13t&&a862193a2811b73554410292ba4da7d1018110ba9f2e69690f1a861cf66cab31 at mg1.substack.com>
To: manny at ratafias.com
Omicron Update: Dec 22
Well, Omicron continues to show its colors across the globe with case
rates surging far beyond what we've seen with any previous waves, like
in Denmark and the UK. Other countries, like France, the United States,
and Canada have a recent explosion of cases pointing to the beginning of
their Omicron wave. Places that put in country-wide restrictions, like
the Netherlands and Germany, have altered their Omicron path thus
far.
Your Local (Infectious Disease) Epidemiologist
------------------------------------------------------------------------
Omicron Update: Dec 22
<https://email.mg2.substack.com/c/eJx1kk2TojAQhn-N3LTywYccOLgyTmGNsDM1LroXKiQNRiFhIYyDv36jnvawVemkq_O-1ZU8zZmBWvdT1OnBOPetMFMHkYLr0IAx0DvjAH0hReT6QRhSxyYCL72lI4ei6gFaJpvI9CM43Vg2kjMjtbrryRITHDqnKBAoCBnhyPWIKDmtXB84CijitCy9kDzbslFIUBwi-IJ-0gqcJjoZ0w0zupqRjV2THvtGc9ZAJwW0Uje6loNZDGM5GMYvC65bK-ts6FbyXqv52An7wLkAPidkRjdGX0DNaAzTFnPyazqQ5pKcNUrP3Ms-d0Oifnxx-lGx_F1m53ecnvduelt9v6233fFwr72QNF59Z_Hx-tC3zY1PiW99-CjRlMUv0-7zIq3-JvJEZnJ7LWmK3g7b5piniOXhmCi0ENemPOWbP6wjr7v9NvbP7XUts9Va7-P6Z168fvwuYO2p-CtxZEQQwZgQgj3sYrogC69i2EesLBGEHq-ChWtYrS7YzFzU1uSfH3H6qGVKTfaqZ4ZVkg2PsqVV2LMdlTRTAYqVDYgnSPOchgfaogYF1giiYCbCvovw0kchdRF9crtPhud7ywBhx_YV2rpU9B9WfwGDNdRv>
<https://email.mg2.substack.com/c/eJxNkMGOhCAMhp9muK2BqogHDnvZ1zAVq8MOgoG6G99-mZnLJk1bWpo__-eQaUv5skcqLJ5p4usgG-m3BGKmLM5CefKL7fQwjq2ozaJMb4Qv05qJdvTBcj5JHOccvEP2KT7_g1GgRnG3vQJUTute97PBsSVnAFZn1lXTaHr9lsVz8RQdWfqhfKVIItg781Fu7ecNvmqUcy6M7tG4tNfnkdPqA9UOBoBBSvh4VDfhih_fVKuPKLwFCUoBgOpVp9oGmn5FpSXOs6Sxd-vQdIxbfCi-dXLfoPmvIrLdMcarrjIyrh7La1ydTrXuZ_R8TRRxDrS8IfCb5AvLtFGkekjLhGyV7qQyWo5tJ9u35yfVSsUMUomqu6R6Fe2VzhySw0CHX2j3KaTNF_4DVQuQsA>
Katelyn Jetelina
<https://email.mg2.substack.com/c/eJxNkMGOhCAMhp9muK2BqogHDnvZ1zAVq8MOgoG6G99-mZnLJk1bWpo__-eQaUv5skcqLJ5p4usgG-m3BGKmLM5CefKL7fQwjq2ozaJMb4Qv05qJdvTBcj5JHOccvEP2KT7_g1GgRnG3vQJUTute97PBsSVnAFZn1lXTaHr9lsVz8RQdWfqhfKVIItg781Fu7ecNvmqUcy6M7tG4tNfnkdPqA9UOBoBBSvh4VDfhih_fVKuPKLwFCUoBgOpVp9oGmn5FpSXOs6Sxd-vQdIxbfCi-dXLfoPmvIrLdMcarrjIyrh7La1ydTrXuZ_R8TRRxDrS8IfCb5AvLtFGkekjLhGyV7qQyWo5tJ9u35yfVSsUMUomqu6R6Fe2VzhySw0CHX2j3KaTNF_4DVQuQsA>
Dec 22
<https://email.mg2.substack.com/c/eJx1UktzmzAQ_jXmVkYSQsCBQ2I3La6Nm9SJHxdGSIsjWwgGhBPy6yvi9tBDZzS7O6t9ft8KbuHUdGPaNr31JlHYsYXUwFuvwVrovKGHrlAypSxKksBzhsRxGHuqL6oOoOZKp7YbwGuHUivBrWrMFE9iTHDivaaSlygKEhZiQVkVlQHmLIgjGuCySqCit7Z8kAqMgBSu0I2NAU-nr9a2_Sy4m5EH98Zm6HQjuIZWSahVo5uT6q3fD2Vvubj4oqldGG-Vk1fsxFTYqc8Zv3TAxTTbLHiwzQWcXsC4xIK8jHuiL9m5QflZhJvtus_M_VUETxXfParN-RHn52eaf9y9r-bL8bh7OMtv-lqqjGXDD9nOsz6r9aucZ2y9PaD14ivNz3fhenxTfJ9_uLpKfH9Rq21G19vsffPLxZscH6Z8s9SHXY74Lhkyg3w2sJ8qXCWLcSPt8V7v6zLKW9gvQpHQi4k5OtoYV4s5eZ4RNti66B0mAtwqf0H4469BqqGeVpx291RKEMGYEIJDTHHgEz-sOGaIlyWCJBRV5FPLT-aC7Yyi-kT-QdXr0pobM7qvjlteKd5_uh3jhdP1YJQdCzC81CBvx2BvF_XZvjiBAZcIsuA2xYwiHDOUBBQFN-6n6wpZGEcIe66vbFyWSf_D92-xW-tY>
Comment
<https://email.mg2.substack.com/c/eJx1Uk2TojAQ_TVyk0rCh3Lg4Mo4hTXCztS46F6oEBqMhoSFoIO_foPuHvawVUkq9fK6O_1eM6qhVt0YtqrX1nTkemwhlHDrBWgNnTX00OW8DF1_EQSOZS4lXnpLi_d51QE0lItQdwNY7VAIzqjmSk58ssQEB9YpdGmBETg4AK-ooHIXHsFQuFB5lWMo-FmWDiUHySCEK3SjkmCJ8KR128-c1YxszBrV0AnFqICWl9BwJVTNe233Q9Fryi42U42htWarhrNOyfnQlqbBeQlsTojBDaMBqU3OjVYXkDMngnGLGfkxHoi4xGeFkjPz0s9dH8tvV-Z8VDR75-n5HSfnvZvcV19v6217PEzYC0mi1VcaHW8PfiPubIx9E4ePHI1p9DLuPi_c8O9lFvOUb2-Fk6C3w1YcswTRLBhiiezyJopTtvlFW_K6228j_9zc1jxdrdU-qr9n-evHzxzWnoyu8Yz4g27y3ujAwHz9b-N_8AZKPjRTS5MnFg8JMuoSQrCHXezYxPYqin1EiwJB4LFqYbua1vKC9cxFTU3-UdLqwoZKOZqnjmpacdo_YONyPsk4SK7HHCQtBJTPAdDPKXqUz2uQYAKhzKkOse8ivPRR4LjIefo9TZTne8sFwpapWyoTJcP_ePwb6ero1w>
Share
<https://email.mg2.substack.com/c/eJx1Uk2P2jAU_DXkBvJHEpJDDpQsK9AC3dXSQC-RY7-AIbbTxFk2_Pp1oJXaQyXbssczfprn4czC0TR9UpvWesOS276GRMO1rcBaaLyuhSaXIvHDaRxTz20EjoLIk21eNgCKySqxTQde3RWV5MxKowc-iTDBsXdKAFEeUxTHfggRERHEyKd-iaclIRQz_CjLOiFBc0jgA5reaPCq5GRt3Y7obEQWbvSmayrDWQW1FKCkqcxRtnbSdkVrGb9MuFGOVrtplOSN0eOuFs7gWAAfEzKii86qvHXPcBjR9I9uRMIBVyBkpxx-t_Qb5EZb0HZgn1gDDmV8MPgXYM0FhjP0K8zJj35PqsvybNDmzIPt-7pd6m8fnL6VLHuV2_Mr3px3_uY2-3yZr-rDfsCeyCadfW7Tw_XOV9WN98vQ6fBBon6bPvXr94t0_JvIlnIrV9eCbtDLflUdsg1iWdwtNZqIa1WcssUvVpPn9W6Vhmd1ncvtbG526fF7lj-__cxhHuj0Y-nJhCCCMSEEB9jHdEImQclwiFhRIIgDXk4nvmVHfcF25CN1JP902WsSxbTu3VXDLCsla--wS4DrmFKdlrbPQbOiAvEIh30k7N7b_AganBBEzmyCQx_hKEQx9RF9ZGFIWxAG0RRhz9UVxql08p___wIPEPGc>
Well, Omicron continues to show its colors across the globe with case
rates surging far beyond what we've seen with any previous waves, like
in Denmark and the UK. Other countries, like France, the United States,
and Canada have a recent explosion of cases pointing to the beginning of
their Omicron wave. Places that put in country-wide restrictions, like
the Netherlands and Germany, have altered their Omicron path thus far.
<https://email.mg2.substack.com/c/eJxVUkuOpDAMPU2xA-UPWbBojTTXQE5iqKggoZPQ3fTpJxSrkSL7xb9n2bZQcInpHPeYS3OJqZw7jgG_84qlYGqOjGnybhSq15o3FTg6yKHxeZoT4gZ-HUs6sNkPs3oLxcdwxbOBMqqb50iYIopLIWZqqOj7WSijtKUwWDQW5psWDucxWBzxC9MZAzbr-Cxlzw_-8WB_67MudPkwuYB9dTZu1eQ3WLDqGYt9XrqWKfHB_nzegH8sMbr6n9dpT3FJmLP_wmrPBXGvGTcFkxeJvGiqMId9YfWnFok0xg6iNQC8FbzHVks6tOAMZwb7Xg-iy7yDDX5jgO9891Vr3MN4w3eT-Q17ao0wWrbKONeKwcwtaKtbjoxQYhQBPUyUMfqjOO_2sDR-ZITRamJUUkF5xzo5A62RxhDU0s59Jwos4UXLQ5BtYf_NqEnjBiGc1ZWgwOzh3eK1q6nq7Qi-nBMGMCu6e43lvoX3YqcFA9ZEdBOUkSpB6KCI5oLwe2vXXUglh57QpvK6WLPCeMYjrdHCirt3uPm4xsXn8g9j8cvF>
*|Epicenter: South Africa|*
It’s clear that Gauteng—Omicron’s epicenter—peaked. It looks like cases
in South Africa, as a whole, also peaked.
<https://email.mg2.substack.com/c/eJxVUl2PpSAM_TXXNw2fIg8-TDaZv2EKVC97FVzAmXF__eL1aRPSHgrtaXpqoeAS0znuMZfmMlM5dxwDfucVS8HUHBnT5N0oeqU1bypwdJBD4_M0J8QN_DqWdGCzH2b1FoqP4frPBsqobp7jbLgT0glGDSMCeqpgsI4YUGZgqPCmhcN5DBZH_MJ0xoDNOj5L2fODfzzYZz3WhS4fJhewr87GrYb8BgtWP2Oxz8vXMiU-2K8_N-AfS4yu3ud12lNcEubsv7DGc0Hca8ZNweRFIi-aasxhX1jfU4tEGmMH0RoA3gqusNWSDi04w5lBpfQgusw72OBvDPCd775qjXsYb_huMr-hYjCA1aydoZdtHcrcguF9q4ixTFGnndZTZfjpNe1-77g0fmSEUcoYo5IKyjvWyRloT8AYglraWXWiwBJetDwE2Rb234yaNG4QwlmfEhSYPbxbvLSaqt-O4Ms5YQCzortlLPcuvIWdFgxYE9FNUEbaC0KHnmguCL9Vu_ZC9nJQhDaV18WaFcYzHmmNFlbcvcPNxzUuPpd_VATMYw>
Why do we have waves? See my previous post here
<https://email.mg2.substack.com/c/eJx1kE2OhCAQhU_T7DSAQOuCxWzmGqaUUskoGCjbePuh29UsJqm_VL3KS74RCOeYLrvHTOxderp2tAHPvCIRJnZkTL13Vpln1zWsDE60umU-91NC3MCvltKBbD-G1Y9APoa3XrZCio4tVvGWa2cAB9VMU9dpM4lJPwfVGgNcjrctHM5jGNHiC9MVA7LVLkR7fjRfD_ld4opHWuMIK-7e4ebjGmefqc7HkAnGn3qMW5HtJc_lqlysTqwWeGF1lpIrCK5MuaLFZ-at5FIIKaXQQommlrWeQBgOw8Cx0-P0rBXBHH4EPRTfZvnHhyW7QQhXOSUgmDzkz7ow6EvfjuDp6jHAsKK78dDN-AOsnzFgeUTXA1lhFBet4V2jeHPTePPWRrdPLljxdbF8BfsPgV8VN5wX>.
But this peak is far more interesting than some may think, as it’s a
sign that we are missing a fundamental piece of the Omicron puzzle. With
R(t)=3, we would expect an attack rate of 90%
<https://email.mg2.substack.com/c/eJwlkc2OhCAMx59muGkA0dEDh73sa5gKVckgGKgz4e0XdxLSD-BP2x8GCLeYij5jJnabmcqJOuAneyTCxK6MaXZWq-E5TR2rgRVjPzKX5zUhHuC8pnQhO6_FOwPkYrjvy1FIMbFdL5OykzV2Wjvx7EEOlgsu0KhODWoczbcsXNZhMKjxjanEgMzrnejMj-7nIX_rCuWArTXxqLELhN677VakmksuRXVCVkM7NjletDewptpQEw9nUgzNB97YuNyATwi2NCfCy4Wt-eyl3enwzOn7HSGlFL1Qomtl268gBg7LwnHqzfpsFcEWXoIeih-bbPO1ZALzuvtiSR8QQqlHCQhWB_l_u4KZqz-u4KjMGGDxaL_M6Av-n-Jcp8EqRDsDaTEoLsaBT53i3RfR_Qn90I9PLlita2NVBV3ilXw04PF0Fg8Xfdxcpj9aTKG_>,
so we would expect Gauteng and South Africa to peak much higher.
Scientists
<https://email.mg2.substack.com/c/eJwlkc2OhCAMx59muGkA0dEDh73sa5gKVckgGKgz4e0XdxLSD-BP2x8GCLeYij5jJnabmcqJOuAneyTCxK6MaXZWq-E5TR2rgRVjPzKX5zUhHuC8pnQhO6_FOwPkYrjvy1FIMbFdL5OykzV2Wjvx7EEOlgsu0KhODWoczbcsXNZhMKjxjanEgMzrnejMj-7nIX_rCuWArTXxqLELhN677VakmksuRXVCVkM7NjletDewptpQEw9nUgzNB97YuNyATwi2NCfCy4Wt-eyl3enwzOn7HSGlFL1Qomtl268gBg7LwnHqzfpsFcEWXoIeih-bbPO1ZALzuvtiSR8QQqlHCQhWB_l_u4KZqz-u4KjMGGDxaL_M6Av-n-Jcp8EqRDsDaTEoLsaBT53i3RfR_Qn90I9PLlita2NVBV3ilXw04PF0Fg8Xfdxcpj9aTKG_>have
offered several hypotheses:
1.
/*Testing*/. South Africa’s test positivity continues to hoover
around 30%
<https://email.mg2.substack.com/c/eJwlUMGOhCAM_ZrhtgYQHDlw2Mv-hilQHbIKBups_PvFMWnapu1r-54HwiWX0-65ErvcROeONuFfXZEICzsqlikGq4anMT1rSRCjHlms01wQN4irpXIg2w-3Rg8Uc7rm5SikMOxlZT97p7V03MyD186DkkI5NOBgHPtwn4UjREweLb6xnDkhW-2LaK-P_vshf5r5_I7hS5gA9eUylNBdX0rV-by1NotWcimElFJooUTfyU7PIAYOznE02s_PThEs6VfQQ_FtkV09XCXwv9cKVuwGKZ2tVYBgjlA_5UZranE7UqRzwgRuxXAzplu2jwbTggkbEMMEZMWguBgHbnrF-5vgJaEe9PjkgrW7ITdUsmc-ypo9rLjHgFvMa15ipX-BwYrS>,
which is very odd because usually this decreases before cases
decrease. So this could mean that people aren’t bothering to get
tested or South Africa has reached testing capacity.
2.
/*Asymptomatic spread*/. Somewhat relatedly, the peak could mean
there are far more asymptomatic cases that just aren’t detected. So
there are far more “true” cases than the epi curves portray. I think
this is the most likely scenario.
3.
/*Secondary attack rate.*/ Omicron could have a shorter generation
time, so positive cases infect far less people than Delta. In other
words, the secondary attack rate is much smaller. Data from the UK,
though, shows household transmission higher with Omicron than Delta,
so I’m not convinced this is a driving factor.
4.
/*Susceptibility*/. Omicron is only spreading among certain levels
of immunity and/or susceptibility. A running hypothesis is that
Omicron and Delta will co-exist with different paths: Omicron will
spread through immune evasion and come and go, while Delta could
persist onward.
5.
/*Behaviors*/. Behaviors of people drastically changed due to
increasing cases. While, as far as I can tell, national policies on
the ground haven’t drastically changed in South Africa, people did
go on summer holiday. As South African scientists warned
<https://email.mg2.substack.com/c/eJwlUMtu7SAM_JrDMsI8Eliw6KZfcPcRASdFJRAF51b5-5IeCfD4xdgTPOFWz9sdtRF7npnuA13Bn5aRCE92NTznFJ0aJ2sl6yCC0YalNq8n4u5TdnReyI5rySl4SrU89cKAAMu-nIbR9gsS-CqtCNxOYYlSCjNpDMq8af0VE5aADv_jedeCLLsvoqO95MdLfPZDP-kZaAh1796_K6cai--wkaerdQBqAgvcWKXF1ClH08d0ggsAIQRoUCAHMejVw8j9snC0OqzToMhv5Rvopfi-iaFdS_8yfD9M7HS7L-XuqdOTX5Nvf-G-7NztfpVE94zFLxnjWwd6i_mnzLxhwd6IcfbkYFQczMitVFy-136E1aM2EwfWeWPtXcXd9TpzDT7jkSLuqea6pUa_ZAyO2Q>,
we need to compare the South African Omicron wave to Beta (not
Delta) to account for seasonality and human behavior.
6.
/*Network effects*/. This plays some sort of role, too (and I think
the most interesting). As people see their regular contacts and
these networks reassert themselves, Omicron runs out of places to go.
Nonetheless, South Africa showed us that Omicron spread incredibly
quickly, and we will continue to see this rate of spread across the globe.
South Africa’s hospitalizations remain about 50% of what they were for
the Delta wave. Deaths continue to increase, but also much, much lower
than before. Is this because /immunity is working/ or because /Omicron
is less severe/? We don’t know yet. But an important preprint
<https://email.mg2.substack.com/c/eJwlUEGOwyAMfE05IkwISQ4c9rLfiAiYFDWBCJx28_ulrWSNR2Nb1oyzhGsulzlyJfaGma4DTcJX3ZAICzsrljl6o_QwTR1rxMPYjyzWORTE3cbNUDmRHeeyRWcp5vTelyNImNjd2LAIPYRh9GFQgwrO9XpxUxBehcF30_etPX3E5NDgE8uVE7LN3ImOeut-bvK31ev14jv68hefPJe1KS4nwkSNgeAAAhqTQgIHyRtKkHoE0E9g0bx1kFJCDwo6LnkfLGhhl0Xg1LswcEV2TQ-gmxL7Knk9l0rWPbjLOytmtyldbVQs2RBt_cjN8tz6fqZI14zJLhv6bxr0jfSTz7xiwnaIfrZkQCsBoxZTp0T3Nf-Ot9f9OAhg7a_P7SqZK59ly85ueESPe8xbXmOlf1VtkMo>
was released yesterday describing Omicron hospitalizations in South
Africa. There was a lot in this paper, but, to me, the following was the
biggest finding: Once someone got to the hospital, the odds of disease
becoming severe was the same as Delta. So if the immune system was
breached, Omicron did the same damage as Delta. This is consistent with
another robust analysis
<https://email.mg2.substack.com/c/eJwlUcuOwyAM_JpyIwJCXgcOe9nfiBxwU3Z5ROBslb9f2koIRoM9I48tEO65XObIldjrWuk60CR81oBEWNhZsazeGT1Oy9KzBpych5n5ut4LYgQfDJUT2XFuwVsgn9OrXs1SyYU9zGLFNMPcb8MkxlHK2S3zNCxa901QWf2xhdN5TBYN_mG5ckIWzIPoqLf-66a-23k-n12176Iul70xNifCRA1BIW8DNoRQwsUDbLzSS7Lyh0_Ec_S25MQjXHxDHn1wWHhszvytSb5S5QXbsH_If063x0Yyb5RQUiql5CC17DvVDXeQo4BtE7gM9j51mmBPv5JuWsRddfXcKoH97WyOrJgIKV3tqwDB3UN90y2qtb3xTJ6uFRNsAd0nRfqs4p3rumPC1ohuBTJy1ELOo1h6LfpPaK-1DOMwT0Ky5uty60rmymcJ2ULAwzuMPoe8t_H-AYhKqd4>of
hospitalizations from the UK that found Omicron is /*not*/ less severe
than Delta.
On the other hand, lab data is showing that there are certainly
physiological differences between Omicron and Delta disease processes
(go here
<https://email.mg2.substack.com/c/eJwlUcuOwyAM_JpyIwJCXgcOe9nfiBxwU3Z5ROBslb9f2koIRoM9I48tEO65XObIldjrWuk60CR81oBEWNhZsazeGT1Oy9KzBpych5n5ut4LYgQfDJUT2XFuwVsgn9OrXs1SyYU9zGLFNMPcb8MkxlHK2S3zNCxa901QWf2xhdN5TBYN_mG5ckIWzIPoqLf-66a-23k-n12176Iul70xNifCRA1BIW8DNoRQwsUDbLzSS7Lyh0_Ec_S25MQjXHxDHn1wWHhszvytSb5S5QXbsH_If063x0Yyb5RQUiql5CC17DvVDXeQo4BtE7gM9j51mmBPv5JuWsRddfXcKoH97WyOrJgIKV3tqwDB3UN90y2qtb3xTJ6uFRNsAd0nRfqs4p3rumPC1ohuBTJy1ELOo1h6LfpPaK-1DOMwT0Ky5uty60rmymcJ2ULAwzuMPoe8t_H-AYhKqd4>for
more great details). It will be weeks or months until data crystallizes
and we have a clear picture of Omicron severity. What all this means for
hospitalizations and deaths in places like the United States remains
unknown.
*|United States|*
Omicron became the dominant variant in just two short weeks and now
accounts for more than73%
<https://email.mg2.substack.com/c/eJw1UEtuhDAMPc1kNyg_GFhk0U2vgUximKghQYmh4vYNgypZ_tvPfhYIl5RPs6VC7FIjnRuaiL8lIBFmthfMo3dGd69hUKw6TvRtz3wZ54y4gg-G8o5s26fgLZBP8eqXvZBiYG-jdMdVa18cWtQ9yMk6KRGFtTPOk9M3LOzOY7Ro8MB8pogsmDfRVh7q6yG_q9h0eNdYZ5slHf_x0wHBkzLYH8yfPnVA9hDpueW0pXydU5g3kkshpJSiFVqoRjbtDKLjME0ch9bOr0YTLPFH0EPzdZFN2adCdW1j08qyWSHGs5ZyxZs9lE-6vjxWu-7R0zlihCmgu9mgm9IPP-OCEesguhHIiE5z0Xd8UJqr-_mL3rZr-xcXrOK6VKeiOdOeQ7IQcPMOV59CWnyhP5hald8>
of cases in the United States now. By next week Omicron could easily
account for 100% of cases. /Will Omicron completely overtake Delta or
will Delta continue its path among some groups?/ We should get clarity
on this soon.
<https://email.mg2.substack.com/c/eJxVUs2SpCAMfpr2psWv4oHD1FbNa1gBos22ggs4M-7TL7anrYL8knwhiYWCS0yn3mMuzUWmcu6oA37nFUvB1BwZ0-SdFv0wjrypgqNKqsbnaU6IG_hVl3Rgsx9m9RaKj-F6zxRldGyems-WUUqJ6wliL8BZOZtBiYEYO4-DumHhcB6DRY1fmM4YsFn1s5Q9P_jHg33WY13o8mFyAfvqbNyqyW-wYOUzFvu8eE1T4oP9-nML_GOJ0VV9Xqc9xSVhzv4Lqz0XxL1G3BBMXiDygqnEHPaF1Z9aJNIYq0RrAHgr-IDtKKlqwRnODA7DqESXeQcb_I0BvvNdV81xN-MtvovMb1GNXEqwrhWzqfnq_9t6WWsGqIqtHgPTyPsfypjqfu-4NF4zUtvHGKOSCso71skZaE_AGIKjtPPQiQJLeNHyEGRb2H9NapLeIISzuhIUmD28a7yGNVW-HcGXc8IAZkV3z7Hcy_Ce7LRgwBqIboKiaS8IVT0ZuSD8Htu1GLKXaiC0qbgu1qigz3ikNVpYcfcONx_XuPhc_gEASs3a>
<https://email.mg2.substack.com/c/eJxVUl2PpSAM_TXXNw2fgg8-TDaZv2EKVC97FVzAmXF__eL1aRPSHgrtOWlroeAS0znuMZfmMlM5dxwDfucVS8HUHBnT5N0oejUMvKnAUS114_M0J8QN_DqWdGCzH2b1FoqP4frPNGV0aJ4jI5JppaSmhHLgQ489p70Fw50ibpY3LRzOY7A44hemMwZs1vFZyp4f_OPBPuuxLnT5MLmAfXU2bjXkN1iw-hmLfV6-linxwX79uQH_WGJ09T6v057ikjBn_4U1ngviXjNuCiYvEnnRVGMO-8L6nlok0hirRWsAeCu4wnaQVLfgDGcGlRq06DLvYIO_McB3vnXVGncz3vAtMr_h7IQx2GOriYFWWAa1shtalIORxFIlFZsop-RHEdr93nFpfO0fo5QxRiUVlHeskzPQnoAxBAdpZ9WJAkt40fIQZFvYf01q0rhBCGd9SlBg9vDWeA1rqn47gi_nhAHMiu6eY7mX4T3ZacGANRHdBGWkvSBU92TggvB7bNdiyF7qqrepvC7WrDCe8UhrtLDi7h1uPq5x8bn8A0TSy-s>
(CDC) Purple=Omicron; Orange= Delta
With more Omicron will come more cases. The Northeast has, by far, the
most cases right now. Washington DC is the leader (134
<https://email.mg2.substack.com/c/eJwlUMuOwyAM_Jpy2wgIeR047GV_I3LATVEJRGAa5e-XNJLltzXjMUC4xnTqPWZil5vp3FEHPLJHIkysZEyzs1r1wzS1rCZWjN3IXJ6fCXED5zWlgmwvi3cGyMVw7ctRSDGxlxYwDlLwZeLS4jC2FkQ_CaWEErYdlv6GhWIdBoMaP5jOGJB5_SLa86P9fci_asdxNOEkt2FuTNxqx4VKEAy5D9ZKcilqKLk6Ez_O_hjIdfdFm2dOX2MhpRRdBW4b2XTPSoTDsnCcOvMcGkWwhregh-LbKptclkxg3hcYS3qDEM46SkDwdPDlcP0817iV4OicMcDi0d5y0K3pV6B5xVCZEtoZSItecTH2fGoVb-_vL327vhsHLljFtbFeBX3Gknw04HF3FjcXfVxdpn-jS5PO>cases
per 100,000) in which cases have increased 440%
<https://email.mg2.substack.com/c/eJwlUMuOwyAM_Jpy2wgIeR047GV_I3LATVEJRGAa5e-XNJLltzXjMUC4xnTqPWZil5vp3FEHPLJHIkysZEyzs1r1wzS1rCZWjN3IXJ6fCXED5zWlgmwvi3cGyMVw7ctRSDGxlxYwDlLwZeLS4jC2FkQ_CaWEErYdlv6GhWIdBoMaP5jOGJB5_SLa86P9fci_asdxNOEkt2FuTNxqx4VKEAy5D9ZKcilqKLk6Ez_O_hjIdfdFm2dOX2MhpRRdBW4b2XTPSoTDsnCcOvMcGkWwhregh-LbKptclkxg3hcYS3qDEM46SkDwdPDlcP0817iV4OicMcDi0d5y0K3pV6B5xVCZEtoZSItecTH2fGoVb-_vL327vhsHLljFtbFeBX3Gknw04HF3FjcXfVxdpn-jS5PO>
in the past two weeks. This is followed by New York City with 121 cases
per 100K and a 342% increase.
<https://email.mg2.substack.com/c/eJxVUl2PpSAM_TXXNw2fCg8-TDbZv2EKVC-5Ci7gzDq_fvC6L5uQ9lA4PU1bCwWXmM5xj7k0l5nKueMY8CuvWAqm5siYJu9G0Q9a86YCR5VUjc_TnBA38OtY0oHNfpjVWyg-hus_U5RR3TxHKVSlMq2tody6mQFTDGdJBoVWIL9l4XAeg8URPzGdMWCzjs9S9vzgHw_2ux7rQpcPkwvYV2fjVkN-gwWrn7HY5-VrmhIf7NefG_CPJUZX7_M67SkuCXP2n1jjuSDulXFLMHmJyEumGnPYF9b31CKRxlglWgPAW8EHbLWkqgVnODM4DFqJLvMONviOAb7yXVfNcTfjDd9F5jdkvTKKoGmlk7QVMKi2toW3lJKBmBm503rSiv-VXHZ7WBo_MsIoZYxRSQXlHevkDLQnYAxBLe08dKLAEl60PATZFvZfi5o0bhDCWZ8SFJg9vCu8RjVVvx3Bl3PCAGZFd0-x3Kvwnuu0YMBKRDdBGWkvCFU90VyQf0O71kL2Ug2ENlXXxcoK4xmPtEYLK-7e4ebjGhefyw8cgssG>
Washington DC (Source NYT)
The state leader is Rhode Island (118 per 100K) followed by New York
(100 per 100K) and New Hampshire (88 per 100K). Hawaii (+557%), Florida
(+371%), Georgia (+139%), Louisiana (+132%), and Texas (+113%) have the
fastest 14-day case growth though.
Nationwide hospitalizations are only up a modest 13% and deaths continue
to remain “low” at 1,351 deaths per day. But severe disease patterns lag
cases 3-4 weeks, so we will see what happens in a few weeks. While I
expect an uptick, I certainly don’t think we will reach levels like we
saw in the past thanks to our vaccines and adaptive immune systems. It’s
noteworthy, though, that the first Omicron death was reported
<https://email.mg2.substack.com/c/eJwtUcuO3CAQ_Br7aBnw88AhyWQ0UQ4ZRblbbWjbZDF4ob2J_z7YEwkVpaaahioFhLMPh9x8pPyEgY4NpcM_0SIRhnyPGAajZdW0fS_yRDTr6i43cZgC4grGSgo75ts-WqOAjHennneMsz5fpKj0qBjoVolJqWZqoa84oMBWj23Fx9dY2LVBp1DiB4bDO8ytXIi2mIlPGb-n9bp_QbC0FAuEYKLyu6OD_haz_0iKpw8ENibG2wQ3r_YVHZ2Fx5fnI-M1L3_illTx4ncTIl3sx2pU8O6_wiZX9MVvCLRcLK7FpqdM3NPzMnHz39v2_Rd___34-i0cz-cyf_Z-TkqhL8iN5CVnjHPOalYxUfCinoA1JYxjiX2tpraoCGb3xiirynXmRdzHSKDeCuXXPMgVnDvSUQCCyUC8ysmEIe3r7gwdAzoYLeqX__QK8UpkmNFhOL8xAEnWVCXrmrIXVSledp-B1k3dtSXL01ztU5eTh9-D9Qosbkbjarz1s4n0D4S_uKI>this
week in Houston among a male aged 50-60 years old who previously
recovered from COVID19. Do not rely on previous infections to get you
through this Omicron wave.
*|Where will this go?|*
Throughout the pandemic, the CDC has looked to a consortium of
scientific teams across the country to model projections. Recently the
teams presented their Omicron projections. One of these teams,
University of Texas, made their modeling public over the weekend. Their
report
<https://email.mg2.substack.com/c/eJwlkUtu7SAMQFdzmSUCAtxkwKCTtw1kwElRE4j49DW7L2kk5A-25WPbQcUt5UufqVRyC1OvE3XE_2XHWjGTVjCb4LVQ72WZSDc8m-VMQjFrRjwg7LrmhuRsdg8Oakjxzucz42whnxqFkKtfBFcz-mVys5VCOE8RV4UT8KctNB8wOtT4jflKEcmuP2s9y2v6ePF__bn0HfzAlrGCc2Or-ANlRN966EAfoOs17B32Aekup11Y-mdZKqW3w3v2MAiGagCGYvATrABeMfW2PS0dweWOjwfm7aYxg2nFFIcRckjldut4-pUEzSlnjHPOJBNsGvkoV2CKgrUUF-nW9ygqbPGL1Zegx8bH0mzp6F-jSwfJ-oAYrx7KUGENfZT7u6Obro8WQ71M72p39M9663Ojv4WbDoe9EL2BqpkSlM2KLpOg07PN-15SyflNGel9fepVUV-p5T052PEMHo-Q9rSFUn8Bymyubg>looked
at 16 omicron scenarios that varied three variables:
1.
How quickly Omicron spreads
2.
How easily Omicron evades immunity, and
3.
How quickly we're able to roll out booster shots
The graphs below display their results for cases, hospitalizations, and
deaths. The left and right graphs correspond to the low and high
severity scenarios, respectively. Briefly:
*
/*Best case scenario*/ (purple line below; scenario B): By
mid-January 190,000 people catch the virus every day—about double
what the case rate is today. In this scenario, Omicron would lead to
10,500 hospitalizations per day (a few thousand more than today) and
1,400 deaths (a few hundred more than today).
*
/*Worst case scenario*/ (pink line; scenario C): By January more
than 500,000 people would catch the virus every day, which is more
than double the peak reached last winter. 30,000 people would be
hospitalized per day and 3,900 would die every day. This scenario is
the most pessimistic and, in my opinion, won’t happen for two reasons:
o
This model assumes that Omicron is /*more*/ severe than Delta.
This is not the case; in fact, there is considerable debate as
to whether Omicron is less severe.
o
This model also assumes that there is no behavior change, which
is also not realistic. People change their behaviors when cases
increase, whether they realize it or not.
<https://email.mg2.substack.com/c/eJxVUtuOrSAM_Zrtm4ar6AMPk5Oc3zAFqptsBQdwZpyvP7h9OglpS6FrrbS1UHCJ6dR7zKW5zFTOHXXA77xiKZiaI2OavNOiV-PImxo4Osih8XmaE-IGftUlHdjsh1m9heJjuP6zgTI6Nk_dzxaBqFko6gYHApwkEgZE2YOStL9p4XAeg0WNX5jOGLBZ9bOUPT_4x4P9rce60OXD5AL21dm41ZTfYMHqZyz2efkKU-KD_fm8A_6xxOjqfV6nPcUlYc7-C2s-F8S9VtwUTF4k8qKpxhz2hfU9tUikMXYQrQHgreAK21HSoQVnODOo1DiILvMONviNAb7zrati3M14h2-R-Ua2AoVRcytIRRHIKhSRQzsyTozh0pBZTJT26kdw2u1habxmhFHKGKOSCso71skZaE_AGIKjtLPqRIElvGh5CLIt7L8eNUlvEMJZnxIUmD28JV6zmqrfjuDLOWEAs6K7x1juXXgPdlowYC1EN0HRtL9k92TkgvB7atdeyF4OitCm8rpYq4I-45HWaGHF3TvcfFzj4nP5B-jLy8c>
<https://email.mg2.substack.com/c/eJxVUtuOrSAM_Zrtm4aryIMPk5Oc3zAFqptsBQdwZpyvP7h9OglpF4V2NV21UHCJ6Rz3mEtzmamcO44Bv_OKpWBqjoxp8m4UvdKaNxU4Osih8XmaE-IGfh1LOrDZD7N6C8XHcP1nA2VUN89RaTLMXDuBDJXskfazdkoZriwI6dxNC4fzGCyO-IXpjAGbdXyWsucH_3iwv_VYF7p8mFzAvjobtxryGyxY_YzFPi9fy5T4YH8-b8A_lhhdvc_rtKe4JMzZf2GN54K414ybgsmLRF401ZjDvrC-pxaJNMYOojUAvBVcYaslHVpwhjODSulBdJl3sMFvDPCd775qjXsYb_huMr8hw77OzrpWz5S2wupa2TDWSqQUKBMSACdKe_UjCOv2sDR-ZIRRyhijkgrKO9bJGWhPwBiCWtpZdaLAEl60PATZFvbfjJo0bhDCWZ8SFJg9vFu8tJqq347gyzlhALOiu2Us9y68hZ0WDFgT0U1QRtoLQoeeaC4Iv1W79kL2clCENpXXxZoVxjMeaY0WVty9w83HNS4-l39wLMup>
<https://email.mg2.substack.com/c/eJxVUtuOrSAM_Zrtm4arwoMPk5Oc3zAFi5tsBQdwZpyvP7h9OglpFy3talaxUHCJ6Rz3mEtzmamcO44Bv_OKpWBqjoxp8vMo-kFr3lQwUyVV4_PkEuIGfh1LOrDZD7N6C8XHcL1nijKqm-foOBWUatebvreid0CxJph10irbE3nTwjF7DBZH_MJ0xoDNOj5L2fODfzzY33rsHLp8mFzAvjobtxryGyxYvcNin5evbUp8sD-fN-AfS4xzvbt12lNcEubsv7DGc0Hca8VNweRFIi-aasxhX1jzqUUijbFKtAaAt4IP2GpJVQuz4czgMGglusw72OA3BvjO91y1xy3GG76HzG_oDCeWONpSRedWgNK1H1akJNNGIB-knZTUP0yLbg9L40dGGKWMMSqrirxjnawC9gSMIaildUMnCizhRctDkG1h_0nUpHGDEM6aSlDAeXhPeK1qqn47gi_nhAHMivO9xXJ_hfdepwUD1kKcJygj7QWhqieaC8LvpV3fQvZSDYQ2lXeOtSqMZzzSGi2suPsZNx_XuPhc_gExaMsn>
So, like everything in epidemiology, the “truth” lies somewhere between
the best and worse case scenario in the United States.
*|Boosters|*
Not nearly enough people have their boosters in the United States: 32%
<https://email.mg2.substack.com/c/eJw1kMGOrSAMhp_msNMAouKCxWzua5gK1SGDYKCeG99-0JNJGkpL2798Fgi3lC9zpELsPma6DjQR_5eARJjZWTDP3hk1jNPUsXpxQvea-TKvGXEHHwzlE9lxLsFbIJ_iXS-1kGJi34b3oGHVdhWDXValxrGzkxKjdqh7WSc9snA6j9GiwTfmK0VkwXwTHeXVfb3kv2o2vb1rrbPtlt5_ceOAoKEM9gfzU9e9wVofnz3KfAcNJYLQgNt9bHL98SfBvJFcCiGlFL1Qomtl268gBg7LwnHq7Tq2imCLP4Jeiu-bbMu5FKparU07y2aHGK_6VIfC6qE86cphrn4_o6drxghLQPdBRB_OD7R5w4j3Nm4GMmJQXOiBT53i3YfIzbwfej1ywaquS7UrmiudOSQLAQ_vcPcppM0X-gW-eJzR>
of eligible Americans and 55%
<https://email.mg2.substack.com/c/eJw1kMGOrSAMhp_msNMAouKCxWzua5gK1SGDYKCeG99-0JNJGkpL2798Fgi3lC9zpELsPma6DjQR_5eARJjZWTDP3hk1jNPUsXpxQvea-TKvGXEHHwzlE9lxLsFbIJ_iXS-1kGJi34b3oGHVdhWDXValxrGzkxKjdqh7WSc9snA6j9GiwTfmK0VkwXwTHeXVfb3kv2o2vb1rrbPtlt5_ceOAoKEM9gfzU9e9wVofnz3KfAcNJYLQgNt9bHL98SfBvJFcCiGlFL1Qomtl268gBg7LwnHq7Tq2imCLP4Jeiu-bbMu5FKparU07y2aHGK_6VIfC6qE86cphrn4_o6drxghLQPdBRB_OD7R5w4j3Nm4GMmJQXOiBT53i3YfIzbwfej1ywaquS7UrmiudOSQLAQ_vcPcppM0X-gW-eJzR>
of those 65+. Omicron has motivated people to get boosted, though.
Omicron is convincing 1 in 8 unvaccinated to change their mind, too.
<https://email.mg2.substack.com/c/eJxVUtuOrSAM_Zrtm0Zuig88TE5yfsMUKG6yFRzAmXG-_uD26SSkXRTa1XTVQMElplPtMZfmMnM5d1QBv_OKpWBqjoxp9lbxYZwm1lRgiRSy8Xl2CXEDv6qSDmz2Q6_eQPExXP-pJJRMzVPh6DgO2glicJCScCao1ZqjNo5KS25aOKzHYFDhF6YzBmxW9Sxlzw_28aB_6zE2dPnQuYB5dSZuNeQ3WLB6h8U8L1_LlPigfz5vwD6WGG29u3XeU1wS5uy_sMZzQdxrxk1BxUUiLppq9GFeWN9Ti73Q2kjeagDWcjZiOwkiW7CaUY3jOEneZdbBBr8xwHe--6o17mG84bvJ_IaDBGTMDi3tcWw5mlqKW2g5DALZaC04nAkh0w8XrNvD0nhFe0oIpZQIwgnraCcckKEHrXuchHFjxwss4UXKg_fbQv-bUZPUBiGc9SlBAefh3eKl1Vz9dgRfzhkD6BXtLWO5d-Et7LxgwJqIdoaiyMB7Iod-Yrxnt2rXXohByLEnTeW1sWYFdcYjrdHAiru3uPm4xsXn8g8lA8z5>
One thing that’s increasingly obvious is how important boosters be in
our projections. While we will start seeing an uptick in cases, we will
continue to see a distinct pattern between unvaccinated, vaccinated, and
boosted. Massachusetts has a great graph
<https://email.mg2.substack.com/c/eJwtkcGOhCAMhp9muGmEUdQDh73sa5gK1SGDYKCM8e0XnU1IKaX8bT80EK4hnmoPidhlJjp3VB6P5JAII8sJ42SNamU_jk9WHMOHbmA2TUtE3MA6RTEj2_PsrAaywV_5YuCCj-ylltlo2Y7YSamF5KPsJZrZSC5g6OYieZeFbCx6jQo_GM_gkTn1ItrT4_nzEL9lHcdRb5BSvYZPOZqgi9XhY03Fx0pDwlTBFvxaLdm5s_qA1taXAU1lvbElL4NLxa8uFdCvMhlRuqUO7wIYZpVoBOdCCN7xlj9rUXcLcNnAPDc4dnrp65Zg9W9Oj7bZVlGnPCcC_a512FhUG3h_lqsIBIuFdIcLmansW_aWzgk9zA7NFxp9yd8YpxU9xqvhCUhx2TZ8kM34bJt_RtcvdLIb-oazUteE8sqrM-ToggaHuzW42eDCahP9ARVXpBc>
illustrating this effect so far.
<https://email.mg2.substack.com/c/eJxVUsuu3CAM_ZrJLhHPBBZZXF2pvxEZcDJ0EkiB3Nv060sm3VRC9sFgH8vHFgouMZ3jHnNpLjOVc8cx4HdesRRMzZExTd6Noh-05k0FjiqpGp-nOSFu4NexpAOb_TCrt1B8DNd_piijunmOSjNNFHJAPaNV0s1iEMB67QyTYuY3LRzOY7A44hemMwZs1vFZyp4f_OPBftRjXejyYXIB--ps3GrIb7Bg9TMW-7x8LVPig33-ugH_WGJ09T6v057ikjBn_4U1ngviXjNuCiYvEnnRVGMO-8L6nlok0hirRGsAeCv4gK2WVLXgDGcGh0Er0WXewQZ_YoDvfPdVa9zDeMN3k_kNQahZApEt0cS2wtC5VUb1LTdc0J5xJeww6Z7_Hpjsfu64NH5khFHKGKOSCso71skZaE_AGIJa2nnoRIElvGh5CLIt7L8ZNWncIISzPiUoMHt4t3hpNVW_HcGXc8IAZkV3y1juXXgLOy0YsCaim6CMtBeEqp5oLsg_1a69kL1UA6FN5XWxZoXxjEdao4UVd-9w83GNi8_lLzC8y2A>
(MA DPH)
We also /*really*/ need guidance for the J&J folks. A new study
<https://email.mg2.substack.com/c/eJwlUEuO7CAMPE2zRJjwCQsWs3nXiAg4GTQJRMTpfrn90NOSZZfKLpVcMRCutd3-qCexd5voPtAXfJ0bEmFj14ltyskrY50bWAcJRj2yfE5LQ9xD3jy1C9lxzVuOgXIt73s5ggTHvr2N0RrpjLIuDdYiaJ3mxSx6SUY5Fz-24UoZS0SPT2x3Lcg2_010nI_h6yH_9Xq9XnzH1P7nJ69t7UyshbBQRyA4gICOpJDAQXJQXII01mr9BJb9mwcpJWhQMHDJ9RLAiDDPAp2Oi-WKwlp-gB5K7Kvk5zWfFOIPj3Vnze-hlLuvWqCw5HD-0f3lqc_9KpnuCUuYN0yfNOgT6V8-04oFuxDTFMiDUQJGI9ygxPB5_h2vNnq0Alj3TbWrir_r1bYaw4ZHTrjnutU1n_QLeZWQIw>
showed the effectiveness of boosters with vaccines distributed in the
United States. While 1 mRNA booster (brown squares) after JJ (green
dots) helps, it doesn’t help as much as the 3 mRNA series. In other
words, it looks JJ people need 2 mRNA shots for full neutralizing
antibody protection instead of just one.
<https://email.mg2.substack.com/c/eJxVUl2PpSAM_TXXNw2fCg8-TDaZv2EKVC97FVzAmXF__eL1aRPSHgrtaXpqoeAS0znuMZfmMlM5dxwDfucVS8HUHBnT5N0o-kFr3lTgqJKq8XmaE-IGfh1LOrDZD7N6C8XHcP1nijKqm-fIUc-coKUoCO-5GBzhKLgehJZWOHHTwuE8BosjfmE6Y8BmHZ-l7PnBPx7ssx7rQpcPkwvYV2fjVkN-gwWrn7HY5-VrmRIf7NefG_CPJUZX7_M67SkuCXP2X1jjuSDuNeOmYPIikRdNNeawL6zvqUUijbFKtAaAt4IP2GpJVQvOcGZwGLQSXeYdbPA3BvjOd1-1xj2MN3w3md-QGwLCcNoiU9gKJYcWZsZbzYlCIJpRPkxaq5-B993vHZfGj4wwShljVFJBecc6OQPtCRhDsA5wHjpRYAkvWh6CbAv7b0ZNGjcI4axPCQrMHt4tXlpN1W9H8OWcMIBZ0d0ylnsX3sJOCwasiegmKCPtBaGqJ5pXIW_Vrr2QvVQDoU3ldbFmhfGMR1qjhRV373DzcY2Lz-Uf9S3KwQ>
Garcia-Beltran et al., mRNA-based COVID-19 vaccine boosters induce
neutralizing immunity against SARS-CoV-2 Omicron variant. Source Here
<https://email.mg2.substack.com/c/eJwlUEuO7CAMPE2zRJjwCQsWs3nXiAg4GTQJRMTpfrn90NOSZZfKLpVcMRCutd3-qCexd5voPtAXfJ0bEmFj14ltyskrY50bWAcJRj2yfE5LQ9xD3jy1C9lxzVuOgXIt73s5ggTHvr2N0RrpjLIuDdYiaJ3mxSx6SUY5Fz-24UoZS0SPT2x3Lcg2_010nI_h6yH_9Xq9XnzH1P7nJ69t7UyshbBQRyA4gICOpJDAQXJQXII01mr9BJb9mwcpJWhQMHDJ9RLAiDDPAp2Oi-WKwlp-gB5K7Kvk5zWfFOIPj3Vnze-hlLuvWqCw5HD-0f3lqc_9KpnuCUuYN0yfNOgT6V8-04oFuxDTFMiDUQJGI9ygxPB5_h2vNnq0Alj3TbWrir_r1bYaw4ZHTrjnutU1n_QLeZWQIw>
But neutralizing antibodies isn’t the only line of defense. Another
study
<https://email.mg2.substack.com/c/eJwlkUuO7CAMRVcTZhUBIb8Bg5aeehvIAZNCTSDi06Xs_pGOhLjGXGN0rKHgHtMlz5gLuTdVrhNlwE_2WAomUjMm5YwU07yuA2mBYcu4EJeVTYgHOC9LqkjOunmnobgYbj9fGGcreUsQQqwbt1RvnE58hHXaxGiFBot8sPRpC9U4DBol_mK6YkDi5buUM3fDV8e_29Im9J937F0o7XSgcdDURJ1vQQvVl1eONWlsic1XfJ3pMX8wmOu11bRjykqzVbWHdAy5-ue_bDSoOeWsP43thu9sf1MO3fCPA4dZzKuaiZO3gXHO2cgEG3rejxbYRGHbKK6jtnMvCuzhh5VO0GPnfa5bLqB_eh0PkuQBIVztKkEB6yD_pRs21fSowZVLYYDNo3mIlmcsf4zVjgFbIRoFRbJJULZMdB0EHR6A94jGaVxmykjra2KrCvJqPHzU4PF0Bg8XfdxdLv8BMU-rrw>found
T-cells among those who received one or two doses of the J&J only
dropped with Omicron by 30%. So, people with 1 mRNA booster after JJ
should largely stay out of the hospital. I’m really hoping it doesn’t
take J&J, the FDA and/or the CDC too long to comment on this. We need
guidance now.
*|Bottom line|*
As expected, Omicron is taking hold in the United States and case rates
will start skyrocketing across the country. What this means for our
hospital systems is yet to be seen. As with everything in public health,
we prepare for the worst and hope for the best.
Love, YLE
------------------------------------------------------------------------
/“Your Local Epidemiologist (YLE)” is written by Dr. Katelyn Jetelina,
MPH PhD— an epidemiologist, biostatistician, professor, researcher,
wife, and mom of two little girls. During the day she has a research lab
and teaches graduate-level courses, but at night she writes this
newsletter. Her main goal is to “translate” the ever-evolving public
health science so that people will be well equipped to make
evidence-based decisions, rather than decisions based in fear. This
newsletter is free thanks to the generous support of fellow YLE
community members. To support the effort, please subscribe here:/
Subscribe now
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