[Hac-announce] Fwd: Catch up quick: COVID-19--from epidemiologist Katelyn Jetelina
Manny Sholem Ratafia
manny at ratafias.com
Thu May 25 08:37:51 EDT 2023
For those who want a super quick summary, this update from Katelyn
Jetelina is mostly good news with trends toward fewer COVID issues, but
we are not out of the woods.--Manny
"Failure is unimportant. It takes courage to make a fool of yourself."
— Charlie Chaplin
-------- Forwarded Message --------
Subject: Catch up quick: COVID-19
Date: Thu, 25 May 2023 11:15:07 +0000
From: Katelyn Jetelina from Your Local Epidemiologist
<yourlocalepidemiologist at substack.com>
Reply-To: Katelyn Jetelina from Your Local Epidemiologist
<reply+21bpx0&a13t&&61b16c1eae747b646e4e4dc47af520fb8b57f47159ba3b02d8d30a0c5ab9b62c at mg1.substack.com>
To: manny at ratafias.com
Catch up quick: COVID-19
We survived the end of the public health emergency. Here’s the state of
affairs. Surveillance SARS-CoV-2 is nosediving across all metrics in all
regions of the U.S.: hospitalizations, deaths, emergency room
departments, and wastewater. Wastewater is still higher than in 2020 and
2021, though.
Open in app
<https://open.substack.com/pub/yourlocalepidemiologist/p/catch-up-quick-covid-19-d2b?utm_source=email&redirect=app-store>
or online
<https://substack.com/redirect/2/eyJlIjoiaHR0cHM6Ly95b3VybG9jYWxlcGlkZW1pb2xvZ2lzdC5zdWJzdGFjay5jb20vcC9jYXRjaC11cC1xdWljay1jb3ZpZC0xOS1kMmI_dG9rZW49ZXlKMWMyVnlYMmxrSWpvME5qYzVPVE1zSW5CdmMzUmZhV1FpT2pFeU16RTFPRGMzTWl3aWFXRjBJam94TmpnMU1ERXpORFk1TENKbGVIQWlPakUyT0RjMk1EVTBOamtzSW1semN5STZJbkIxWWkweU9ERXlNVGtpTENKemRXSWlPaUp3YjNOMExYSmxZV04wYVc5dUluMC5LVWhnWEd5TFZWdXcxYUpMLTNITk1zeFFjWFFCXy0zVkV3M0U2NWMyOGVrIiwicCI6MTIzMTU4NzcyLCJzIjoyODEyMTksImYiOnRydWUsInUiOjQ2Nzk5MywiaWF0IjoxNjg1MDEzNDY5LCJleHAiOjE2ODc2MDU0NjksImlzcyI6InB1Yi0wIiwic3ViIjoibGluay1yZWRpcmVjdCJ9.oFaeqWGNTeuTEOJrAMUD6Qfi17mpc0WY4Fn8s0d3_iM?>
<https://substack.com/redirect/2/eyJlIjoiaHR0cHM6Ly95b3VybG9jYWxlcGlkZW1pb2xvZ2lzdC5zdWJzdGFjay5jb20vcC9jYXRjaC11cC1xdWljay1jb3ZpZC0xOS1kMmI_dG9rZW49ZXlKMWMyVnlYMmxrSWpvME5qYzVPVE1zSW5CdmMzUmZhV1FpT2pFeU16RTFPRGMzTWl3aWFXRjBJam94TmpnMU1ERXpORFk1TENKbGVIQWlPakUyT0RjMk1EVTBOamtzSW1semN5STZJbkIxWWkweU9ERXlNVGtpTENKemRXSWlPaUp3YjNOMExYSmxZV04wYVc5dUluMC5LVWhnWEd5TFZWdXcxYUpMLTNITk1zeFFjWFFCXy0zVkV3M0U2NWMyOGVrIiwicCI6MTIzMTU4NzcyLCJzIjoyODEyMTksImYiOnRydWUsInUiOjQ2Nzk5MywiaWF0IjoxNjg1MDEzNDY5LCJleHAiOjE2ODc2MDU0NjksImlzcyI6InB1Yi0wIiwic3ViIjoibGluay1yZWRpcmVjdCJ9.oFaeqWGNTeuTEOJrAMUD6Qfi17mpc0WY4Fn8s0d3_iM?>
/Si quiere leer la versión en español, pulse aquí
<https://substack.com/redirect/ce461f72-e00f-42d1-89fc-31c75e793cdf?j=eyJ1IjoiYTEzdCJ9.fXnNfjqEHuJb90uhUC5MuKSqDSSONTVxMYyEVAne1uo>./
------------------------------------------------------------------------
Catch up quick: COVID-19
<https://substack.com/app-link/post?publication_id=281219&post_id=123158772&utm_source=post-email-title&isFreemail=true&token=eyJ1c2VyX2lkIjo0Njc5OTMsInBvc3RfaWQiOjEyMzE1ODc3MiwiaWF0IjoxNjg1MDEzNDY5LCJleHAiOjE2ODc2MDU0NjksImlzcyI6InB1Yi0yODEyMTkiLCJzdWIiOiJwb3N0LXJlYWN0aW9uIn0.KUhgXGyLVVuw1aJL-3HNMsxQcXQB_-3VEw3E65c28ek>
Katelyn Jetelina
<https://substack.com/redirect/351f4f40-78b6-4cd4-9628-48b70b6c5468?j=eyJ1IjoiYTEzdCJ9.fXnNfjqEHuJb90uhUC5MuKSqDSSONTVxMYyEVAne1uo>
May 25
<https://substack.com/redirect/351f4f40-78b6-4cd4-9628-48b70b6c5468?j=eyJ1IjoiYTEzdCJ9.fXnNfjqEHuJb90uhUC5MuKSqDSSONTVxMYyEVAne1uo>
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Share
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We survived the end of the public health emergency. Here’s the state of
affairs.
Surveillance
SARS-CoV-2 is nosediving across all metrics in all regions of the U.S.:
hospitalizations, deaths, emergency room departments, and wastewater.
Wastewater is still higher than in 2020 and 2021, though.
<https://substack.com/redirect/d60c209f-b3e4-4823-955e-782411529df0?j=eyJ1IjoiYTEzdCJ9.fXnNfjqEHuJb90uhUC5MuKSqDSSONTVxMYyEVAne1uo>
We’ve been hitting new lows in death counts, too. In fact, excess deaths
are hovering at only ~1%
<https://substack.com/redirect/9250ba62-69ce-4936-8c02-768c3405b4fa?j=eyJ1IjoiYTEzdCJ9.fXnNfjqEHuJb90uhUC5MuKSqDSSONTVxMYyEVAne1uo>above
pre-pandemic rates (at the height of the pandemic we were at 47%). In
other words, things are looking good right now.
It will be interesting to watch what happens this summer, as the South
has consistently faced a COVID-19 wave. Most scientists
<https://substack.com/redirect/a22f0972-4e15-4581-a6f0-50ff3111c3d9?j=eyJ1IjoiYTEzdCJ9.fXnNfjqEHuJb90uhUC5MuKSqDSSONTVxMYyEVAne1uo>(including
me) are betting that we will continue to see /wavelets/, at least until
winter.
Virologists continue to identify “cryptic lineages” in wastewater,
though. These are highly mutated COVID-19 variants that randomly pop up
on our radar. The latest (right below) was detected ~12 hours ago. None
have taken off yet, but are a lingering reminder that a variant of
concern could be brewing in the background. We still have many
unanswered questions
<https://substack.com/redirect/eae0f574-c355-4f9d-8796-22ffd0e3da58?j=eyJ1IjoiYTEzdCJ9.fXnNfjqEHuJb90uhUC5MuKSqDSSONTVxMYyEVAne1uo>about
cryptic lineages: /What is the health status of the person?//Do they
have long COVID? Where in the body is the virus replicating? /
<https://substack.com/redirect/1330a390-2415-48e6-9a3b-1a7bf854b70b?j=eyJ1IjoiYTEzdCJ9.fXnNfjqEHuJb90uhUC5MuKSqDSSONTVxMYyEVAne1uo>
SARS-CoV-2 cryptic lineage examples from Marc Johnson @SolidEvidence
<https://substack.com/redirect/9a80ee52-d50e-4474-b390-98e0482d3aea?j=eyJ1IjoiYTEzdCJ9.fXnNfjqEHuJb90uhUC5MuKSqDSSONTVxMYyEVAne1uo>
Noteworthy COVID-19 news
*
/*Indoor air quality.*/Up until now, the CDC recommended that we
“improve ventilation” to reduce transmission. But /by how
much?/Well, for the first time, CDC set minimum ventilation targets
for indoor spaces: 5 air changes per hour. This may sound like
boring news, but it’s huge for public health. Not just for viruses
but health overall. While this standard isn’t mandatory, you should
follow up with your business, school, place of worship, etc. to
ensure it’s being met now.
POLL
Are you interested in a deeper YLE dive into this ventilation
standard topic?
Yes, would be super helpful
<https://substack.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.z-8bdRmcnKUuijLF1pmeRoHan8zedi8M3M_3XqI9Ojg?>
Maybe
<https://substack.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.CaFZ7r-YBvz6uooZLv03MpJib1ofNya1o2fwvYkuFXk?>
Nope, I've already fallen asleep
<https://substack.com/redirect/2/eyJlIjoiaHR0cHM6Ly95b3VybG9jYWxlcGlkZW1pb2xvZ2lzdC5zdWJzdGFjay5jb20vYXBpL3YxL3BvbGwvdm90ZS9lbWFpbD90b2tlbj1leUoxYzJWeVgybGtJam8wTmpjNU9UTXNJbkJ2YzNSZmFXUWlPakV5TXpFMU9EYzNNaXdpY0c5c2JGOXBaQ0k2TnpRek5ETXNJbkJ2Ykd4ZmIzQjBhVzl1WDJsa0lqb3lNVFF4T0Rrc0ltbGhkQ0k2TVRZNE5UQXhNelEyT1N3aVpYaHdJam94TmpnM05qQTFORFk1TENKcGMzTWlPaUp3ZFdJdE1qZ3hNakU1SWl3aWMzVmlJam9pY0c5c2JDMTJiM1JsSW4wLmJhbE1TZDZ4U25aWnRiOTVJNl9VdXBzekNuQUVGck9DT0FsU3Ata3hkdGciLCJwIjoxMjMxNTg3NzIsInMiOjI4MTIxOSwiZiI6dHJ1ZSwidSI6NDY3OTkzLCJpYXQiOjE2ODUwMTM0NjksImV4cCI6MTY4NzYwNTQ2OSwiaXNzIjoicHViLTAiLCJzdWIiOiJsaW5rLXJlZGlyZWN0In0.NS4o6PItYHiZQwm9kW2SBQ5IUvoQfTe4t3c79UvUbhg?>
*
/*Fall boosters. */The WHO officially recommends a monovalent (one
strain) booster that targets XBB—an Omicron subvariant—this fall.
Countries don’t have to follow suit. (The U.S. chose a different
vaccine formula than WHO recommended last year, for example.) A big
FDA meeting is coming in June to discuss the U.S. plan.
*
/*Mask usage*/. Polling
<https://substack.com/redirect/c7161890-5ca1-467a-a1c0-cf6511761f89?j=eyJ1IjoiYTEzdCJ9.fXnNfjqEHuJb90uhUC5MuKSqDSSONTVxMYyEVAne1uo>on
May 6-9 found 46% of respondents wore a mask at least some of the
time in the past 7 days. Just looking outside, I was surprised about
this statistic, but probably because I’m white and in the suburbs,
two groups with the lowest rates. We really need to improve masking
among older adults, especially in times of high transmission.
<https://substack.com/redirect/4309773d-c213-43fc-98ee-1eaf1aa43419?j=eyJ1IjoiYTEzdCJ9.fXnNfjqEHuJb90uhUC5MuKSqDSSONTVxMYyEVAne1uo>
*
/*Potential relief for immunocompromised*/. AstraZeneca is on track
<https://substack.com/redirect/028bca37-ed12-41af-a1b7-2fae32515fe0?j=eyJ1IjoiYTEzdCJ9.fXnNfjqEHuJb90uhUC5MuKSqDSSONTVxMYyEVAne1uo>for
an Evushield replacement. Their Phase III clinical trial is showing
promising results. An emergency use authorization “could be here by
the second half of this year.”
Interesting science updates
*
/*Changes in transmission. */The risk of household transmission is
increasing
<https://substack.com/redirect/36f3da2e-53cc-4599-a5fa-438e669202e0?j=eyJ1IjoiYTEzdCJ9.fXnNfjqEHuJb90uhUC5MuKSqDSSONTVxMYyEVAne1uo>as
Omicron continues to mutate. In addition, expect to get infected ~1
day quicker than before (average 4 days). Infection risk continues
to be higher among unvaccinated versus vaccinated people.
<https://substack.com/redirect/6fa31425-d5ae-4d5a-9169-acd274fae7cf?j=eyJ1IjoiYTEzdCJ9.fXnNfjqEHuJb90uhUC5MuKSqDSSONTVxMYyEVAne1uo>
*
/*Missed opportunity.*/COVID-19 vaccinations rates among children
are abysmal. One study found that if we reached flu vaccine coverage
levels over this past winter, we could have prevented
<https://substack.com/redirect/973fcb07-d933-46a3-b399-15089c7c4d67?j=eyJ1IjoiYTEzdCJ9.fXnNfjqEHuJb90uhUC5MuKSqDSSONTVxMYyEVAne1uo>10,019
pediatric hospitalizations and 5,448,694 days of school absence for
COVID-19. /Better luck next year? /
*
/*Risk of long COVID after second infection.*/Risk of long COVID
decreases after second infections, but is not zero. A new preprint
<https://substack.com/redirect/69182cfc-7122-49f5-8010-31f29b4a5658?j=eyJ1IjoiYTEzdCJ9.fXnNfjqEHuJb90uhUC5MuKSqDSSONTVxMYyEVAne1uo>found
the risk of long COVID after a second infection is 1 in 40 for those
over 16 years old and 1 in 165 for those under 16 years old. (As a
comparison
<https://substack.com/redirect/b7e5282d-07c7-4f1c-8b59-de2bcb13cbb6?j=eyJ1IjoiYTEzdCJ9.fXnNfjqEHuJb90uhUC5MuKSqDSSONTVxMYyEVAne1uo>,
the annual risk of getting into a car accident is 1 in 30 and**the
annual risk of permanent impairment is 1 in 700.)
What’s next?
We are in for a few quiet weeks (or months? who knows). In June, we
should have clarity on the fall COVID-19 vaccine plan in the States.
Stay tuned.
Love, YLE
------------------------------------------------------------------------
/“Your Local Epidemiologist (YLE)” is written by Dr. Katelyn Jetelina,
MPH PhD—an epidemiologist, data scientist, wife, and mom of two little
girls. During the day she works at a nonpartisan health policy think
tank and is a senior scientific consultant to a number of organizations,
including the CDC. At night she writes this newsletter. Her main goal is
to “translate” the ever-evolving public health science so that people
will be well equipped to make evidence-based decisions. This newsletter
is free thanks to the generous support of fellow YLE community members.
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